I Would Love to Be Bullish, But…

  • Posted by
  • on November 24th, 2008

We have three major problems forgetting the nightmare ‘FAILouts’ for the moment:

1. Google

2. Facebook

3. Government

Google has no legs. The Dow just rallied 1,000 points and Google is lower. Who cares the reasons, but when a cash flow machine full of cash and piss and vinegar won’t budge, you can’t get me excited about near-term prospects

Facebook is a farce. Our best technology private company is groping in the dark. They act like a 20 year old public company in my opinion. I don’t believe the Facebook/Twitter acquisition rumors that Kara Swisher is floating around (nor do I have inside information that it’s false though since it’s private I was after it), but if it’s true, WTF Facebook? There is absolutely no synergy in a Facebook/Twitter merger and to be honest if they had offered cash, Twitter would have taken it and the whole social media space would have imploded. That’s pretty scary. Mark…have some balls with that God Complex will ya!

More frightening than Google or Facebook though is GOVERNMENT. I said a few weeks ago that being bearish was getting old, but being bullish does not seem quite right yet either. For me, it’s the government. You can NEVER trust government. I can’t anyways and the only rallies we seem to get are government induced ‘FAILout’ rallies.

Yes, we are historically oversold (whatever that means) and the VIX is high and I am negative so that must mean it’s time to get bullish yada yada yada but today’s Citibank fiasco is a disgrace to America.

The people that got us into the mess and politicians combined to give Citibank CHEMO and not Capital .

I will stick with a hot trading hand for now in UpsideTrader :

Yeah, I know we were oversold and nothing goes strait down, but when we rally off the bailout of the largest bank on the planet it truly makes me wonder. When we rally even though our President Elect gives no hint of extending existing tax policy, it makes we wonder. If Obama wants to achieve true rock star status all he would have to do is say “I’m not raising taxes and I will freeze spending.” The market it would pop 2000 points in a day and folks would have true hope for change. Bush was good on the tax part but acted like a drunken sailor in Bangkok on the latter. You have to have both or it’s just an exercise in futility. One can hope.

If you are nimble and disciplined this tape can be managed.

Until I see some growth getting legs, the market moves are just noise. It’s hard just watching, but it’s more profitable than trading this tape.

I don’t think things have to be this bad or drawn out, but it’s the path our leadership is choosing every Sunday night.

It’s like a pitcher throwing the same pitch at the same speed every goddamn time. Pathetic.

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