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My Favorite Stocks for 2008 and other Portfolio Changes

Last year Nuance (NUAN) was my favorite name going into 2007. It had a big year. I have sold it down some. At one point RICK’s was my largest position. I have sold that way down in the 20′s. Sold more today above $29. I had a really big position in Gold and Silver stocks but was stopped out of many names in August (that is part of the business). SLW and PAAS are my biggest metal positions as we head into 2008. I still like PHO – my proxy for water.

Going into January, here are my biggest stock positions (I have over 50 right now):

1. Apple – despite being a net seller in 2007, it remains number 1 for the third year straight…even at $200 . Glad I bought some at $194 a few weeks ago now that there are movie rentals coming .

2. Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

3. Nasdaq – (NDAQ)

4. Nuance (NUAN)

5. Synaptics – SYNA (I need to change this ASAP)

With almost 30 percent of my hedge fund in stocks right now, I am close to my limit for comfort. Wallstrip, the travel and private investments take too much of my time…AND I LOVE IT THAT WAY.

Most important, it’s the level/allocation that helps me stay focused on long-term trends and avoid noise and fear . It is the main mistake beginners and veterans make. Investors are not allocated properly for their risk profiles.

I do want a bigger allocation to stocks because of money inflows and liquidity events in my portfolio so I will be making an allocation to Blackstar (no financial relationship) for January 2008. It’s my first hedge fund allocation in a few years. My friends Cole and Eric have added a short overlay to the long only program and I just love it. It took me 5 minutes to understand and Eric and Cole hate shorting as much as me so they have not taken this lightly.

Coming on strong to replace Synaptics (SYNA) is Amazon. I added more below $85 a few weeks back even though I said I would wait for it to cross $100. The Kindle is obviously a non event as it relates to financials…good or bad. Lot’s of recent Amazon posts to remind you why it deserves a top 5 allocation in my holdings.

Noticeably absent for the first time in three years is Garmin. No Google or Baidu on the book. SINA is my only China stock.

I am expecting/hoping for a 50 percent pullback in solar stocks at some point, but that will be a gift. There is no supply and 2008 will not change that situation. I only own WFR, FSLR, JASO (recent buy) and CSIQ (sold way down in the 20′s).

So far this holiday season we are cold, but having a great time. Hope you are having some great times too.

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  • bocagirl

    Amazon continues to kick out the jam. Their quick announcement of the best Christmas sales ever means that sales were HUGE. Right now online sales overall are great and especially at Amazon.

    I do think the Kindle (part of Amazon’s overall move to selling downloadable inventory) will make a positive difference to Amazon’s future profits, people don’t realize how large the book market is. There are a lot of dollars involved for Amazon’s benefit or they wouldn’t have made this move. Today I was listing a book where it was cheaper to buy the Kindle ebook version than to buy my used hardcover. Kindle wins… quicker for the customer, no wait time for arrival, huge profits. On a sale of a ten dollar hardcover, Amazon takes between $1.80 and $2.00 in commission from me. But a $9.95 Kindle download sales probably nets Amazon at least $4.00, possibly even more depnding on the deal with the publisher, plus minimal employee costs with no storage or shipping costs to sell a download file.

    I don’t own any Amazon stock right now but I ought to.

    Ebay however is languishing. Sales on Ebay won’t improve until Meg Whitman is gone. She doesn’t get that ecommerce has evolved into something that is non-auction centric, and that your paying customers (the sellers) deserve to be treated well so they can do what they do best… sell stuff. Paypal is really the best run part of Ebay. Enough of my blather I have to go back to work, can’t get enough stuff up on Amazon fast enough. :D

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