Today I wanted to outline my thoughts on what/who won’t work in 2008…hopefully in an effort to stop you from bottomfishing.
1. Blockbuster and Blu-Ray are both lame. The few times I actually have to go to Blockbuster every year should not be made even more confusing with Blu-Ray. What a horrid idea for all parties involved. Why do I really need to see ‘Die Hard with A Vengeance in even ‘better’ quality. It just sucks in a better picture and louder. Blockbuster stores give you ‘coodies’ by the way.
2. Facebook will go backwards in valuation. I don’t buy into the biggest demographic being 35 plus. I don’t believe CNN polls either. Though I was a fan at $1 billion, I get almost zero utility from really trying to figure it out. I totally get why college kids like it though and Facebook is not going away.
3. Sushi will slow down. We are way oversushi’d. I still love Sushi but it’s boring and I am cutting way back. That’s good news for Chipotle’s (CMG). Burrito’s are the new Hand Roll. I have been long Chipotle’s since the IPO and have sold it down way too fast. It’s not even a top 10 position of mine, but remains my favorite growth idea outside Apple.
4. This TV Network audience chart will actually begin to accelerate:
Chart Hat Tip – Paul Kedrosky .
5. Writers will continue to lose very badly in their strike. Right or wrong they are so screwed. Teaming with venture capitalists like ‘Funny or Die’ did, won’t work (unless you are Will Ferrell). Not yet anyways.
6. No one will solve the video advertising problem in 2008. It has never been cheaper to make or distribute video, but never harder to get an audience despite the chart in Number 4. There are a lot of bets being made in this space because the rewards are so high. Alley Insider is writing about the problem almost daily .
7. U.S Financial stocks (save exchange stocks) will continue to underperform, way underperform.
8. The US dollar will still not work. Our government likes it that way.
9. Renting music is lame. Always will be.
10. Steve Ballmer.
Disclosure – Long Chipotle’s (CMG)