Stop Being Bearish

  • Posted by
  • on October 29th, 2008

Face it…you missed the bearish call. You are down 40 percent.

Even if we drop 20 more percent tomorrow, you missed the call. The call was to get out last September and not look back.

Now what?

I get twenty calls a day from friends down 30-50 percent in crap (yes if it’s down 50 percent it’s crap and your manager knows squat) asking me what they should do. That’s the way the money business works. Nobody calls their own manager who lost them the money. That’s because their manager wrote them a letter blaming Greenspan, Paulson, Bush, Goldman…..

Listen up. If your manager is down 50 percent fire him…NOW (you should fire yourself, but you won’t). Even if you give it to another manager down 50 percent it will be cathartic. Tell him he sucks balls as well. Ten times.

There is no use talking about the past right now. All rear view bullshit. Won’t make you back a nickel.

All that matters is what’s next.

My answer….I wish I knew.

What I do know is…I don’t think it pays to listen to CNBC, Cramer, The Octabox, Art Cashen. Sure Cramer nailed the short side for an hour, but it does not count because he was yelling fire in a crowded room. He missed the call by 4,000 Dow points. Art Cashen would still be looking for a washout at Dow 1,000. He is long ago senile from having a microphone jammed in his face by that other yutz on the floor at CNBC. It’s all rather sickening.

Grab yourself by the socks and man up. You will not make back your losses in 2 years or 3 so deal with it.

Investing is hard. It is a priviledge, not a right. Borrowing was supposed to be a priviledge too, but YOU abused it. Capital one just sold it.

Lot’s of innocent people are getting hurt. It’s called collateral damage. It’s called LIFE. Life is difficult.

Take a look at this fantastic chart created by my friend Colin who runs internet research at Canaccord

canaccord.jpg

Odds matter to me.

Betting on the end of the world at this point seems fun and exciting. COMFORTABLE even. Just not a bet for me anymore. You know where I stand…light, flexible and ‘too small to fail’.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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