The Bears…Not Lazy Enough…My Dell Market and Chinese Dental Plan Hypotheses

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  • on November 30th, 2007

It should be a DREAM DAY for bears – Dell is down 15 percent (it deserves to be lower by the way). They are all on the phone with themselves talking about the end of the world. They have no idea that Dell was an irrelevant business to everyone but their employees, like back in 1999.

The bears are passing around this link about Countrywide having RECORD amount of homes for sale on their website . In China, with 100 cities of 5 million people or more and no dentists, but a first taste of what money is….they could give a Kung Pao about Dell and Countrywide. They think stocks only go up.

THE BEARS are always too adamant. They never are happy with FAST, Quick profits. They will break your accounts despite being right occassionally because the end of the world is a sucker’s bet.

So are 10 team parlays (3-team parlays for that matter), but people love them.

The bull advantages are just too great.

Even though we know Dell sucks and Sirius sucks and Countrywide is broken and Citibank is a mess, the market screams higher today. Even if you are right on these, what’s the freaking point. It’s better just to make fun of them and the diligent shareholders screaming value than waste you time, energy and money gaming their next move.

The bears/shorts need to start thinking less and being more lazy to really make money.

Money managers, especially the big ones, are the laziest motherf$%ckers on the planet. They KNOW they can’t beat the indexes and all the ‘real’ money goes into marketing and legal.

When the market is good, the big money monagaers, the obnes that dominate the market price action these last 10 years, they buy the leaders, when the market is bad, they buy the leaders and when the market is going nowhere, they buy the leaders. If they raise too much money, they hire 20 marketing people to sell more of their crap fund and just two junior analysts to justify buying Dell and CFC as value plays.

If the market gets bad for too long…they sell the leaders last to raise cash because that’s where they can raise it. That’s why the leaders always get killed near the end of a selloff. That’s why you watch the all-time high list in bad markets. Outlazy, the lazy.

Too watch anything BUT the leaders is therefore too much work and that’s why the strategy works. The smart people are too smart and they are not watching the right stocks.

Here is what the dumb, lazy people (including myself) are printing money in day after day.

Apple – AAPL

Rick’s Cabaret – RICK

RIMM

Dolby – DLB

Chipotle’s – CMG

Google – GOOG

First Solar – FSLR

Don’t overthink it. These companies all absolutely own their categories. Money managers are lazy. Especially the big ones which truly dominate market price action. They either own crap like Dell or the all-time high list. Your advantage is you are not an idiot and you have limited capital, and therefore don’t have to own Dell.

Disclosure – Long all the above.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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