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Twitter Me This…Twitter will be over $60 in 2015

A second earnings call is now behind twitter.

The stock is at #alltimelows this morning (afternoon in Paris).

Here is a wrap up of some of my favorite ‘cashtagged’ messages re Twitter.

One of my fave reads – research I pay for From Ben Thompson, is really gloomy on Twitter prospects:

Unfortunately, I’m increasingly worried it’s too late for Twitter to fix their new user problem, for a few reasons:

It’s been 8 years; if they haven’t figured out how to articulate their value prop and make that value prop approachable by now, when will they?

Lots and lots of people have tried Twitter, and given up; it will be much more difficult to get those people to try again. It’s like the old saying: you only get one chance to make a first impression.

Advertisers (and users) continue to have more and more options for their digital dollars (and corresponding attention). As new apps like the messaging services begin to optimize, Twitter will become more and more of an afterthought
There is a business here, but I’m increasingly of the bearish opinion that it’s a niche-based small business, not even remotely worth the current valuation.

One more thing: Twitter is famous for basically stumbling onto an incredible product, which meant their inability to understand their market and fit didn’t really matter. But now that lack of understanding is absolutely killing them. Twitter needs better product marketing above all else, and I wonder if the culture, built on product tinkering, will allow that to develop.

I refuse to believe the best financial days are behind the product. I have my final shares of stock off lock up on May 6 and I have no intention of selling them. I will get to that in a bit.

My favorite illustration of the death of Twitter comes from BlueFielder (hopefully Barron’s wont ever cost 2 Bitcoins):

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On April 10, I warned on my blog that things were looking gloomy for Twitter. The Stocktwits community chipped in with some ghoulish looking charts (all funny).

This morning, the sellers are pounding the stock into the $37’s.

I can’t tell you where the bottom will be. I imagine there could be some executive changes as financial and growth pressures heat up, but I feel core product remains great. I believe they have the capital to make a ton of interesting acquisitions to control attention and expand the media side of the business.

The marketing and sales automation data will surely become an integral part of the business as well.

I like this outline on the potential of Twitter from David Cheng. Give it a good read. While no way free and clear, the Twitter upside seems much bigger than the downside as I write.

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