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What a Market Top Looks Like…’Larry Fink’

This weekend is full of stupid ass headlines from the likes of Barron’s, on ‘Dow 15,000′ and Larry Fink of Blackrock saying ‘be 100 percent in equities’. Back in October they were nowhere to be found and their silence along with the Goldman downgrade of GDP made things ripe for a bottom.

Predictions are always dumb and for a guy like Larry Fink to be making broad allocation predictions seems over the top.

Twitter is likely trading at 40 times NEXT year’s revenues. Goldman and Morgan bankers are taking Facebook public, but can’t use the product.

Greece and Europe is still an implosion waiting to happen.

There are thousands of startups run by kids under 25. They have never made a sale.

The monthly charts of growth stocks are rising as steeply as they did in 1999 (this time with revenue and profits for the most part).

I think data/biotech is this decades big catalyst so I am not expecting the end of the world on our next big selloff, but it sure feels closer to a top than it does to a place where I want to be long 100 percent equities.

  • http://twitter.com/leopardtrader leopardtrader

    The conditions for substantial correction (top) are not there yet. With often shallow pullbacks, the market still has room to run. While I know that forecast is a dumb game I estimate that such conditions to arise when we have crossed 1400 on the SNP and/or DOW 1300 IMHO. Larry may be a bit late but I dont believe he is calling the top here.

  • http://twitter.com/katetrades Kate

    Uncertainty is increasing. It feels like one piece of crap news with substance, for example Greece imploding will send the market tumbling. Which will be a good thing. If the news doesn’t come, we’ll drip and that will be a good thing too. Either way, some correction is needed. Personally I would prefer a sell off than a drip because traders feeling decisive about the market is as important as its direction. Either way, I am back to being lighter than I was while this figures itself out.

  • Guest

    I find this comment oddly improper – “There are
    thousands of startups run by kids under 25. They have never made a sale”
    - Triumph of consumer services is not about making
    sales, but only about winning products. & Most star-CEOs rise as such early on.  And actually if wasn’t successful CEO until
    40, don’t start now.

    • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

      It I what it is. I am seeing it every day. Not meaning it as a slander. In fact it’s long term bullish as I would rather all these young CEOs learn to sell than build leveraged spread sheets for banks.

  • Jmpatt2

    correction ? whats that

  • http://profiles.google.com/jayzalowitz Jay Zalowitz

    Gotta hop in here…. The unemployment rate for people under 25 is right about 50% if I remember correctly…. don’t hate on them for making their own jobs

  • http://twitter.com/IQMSUpdate IQMSUpdates

    could not agree more. Don’t forget Credit Suisse “It’s not a sucker’s rally” on the same day as that Fink car crash.

    Keeping it real as usual H!

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    I’ve always been somewhat dubious that a big new stand headline correlates with a major market top.  Unless I’m mistaken, it hasn’t occurred often enough to draw any valid statistical conclusions from. It almost feels like a trader myth as opposed to a real phenomena.

    What I do know is if you are an investor, you’re probably going to buy too high if you buy here.  If you’re a trader, you’ll do better if you remain flexible and eschew your biases. :shrug:

    • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

      I concur

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  • http://twitter.com/upsidetrader UPSIDETRADER

    Love it

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  • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

    i am really wrong so far…

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