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What Does a Market Bottom Look Like…Today!

I doubt today was a long-term stock market bottom. I hope it is. I don’t have any money pinned on hope though.

Here is how I called it on the Stocktwits stream today. We are working to make it easier to ‘rewind’ back to moments in time. Trust me it’s wicked cool but our team can’t grow fast enough for all the stuff we need to do. There are so many smart people now sharing in real time on our platform. Days like today remind me that we have all really built a platform together for sharing ideas. It’s thrilling.

I share (often overshare) because it makes me a better investor. Period. It is fun to get followed, liked and even to pound your chest when you are right. It does not make you a bad person.

There is no RIGHT way to use Social Media, there are better ways and wrong ways. In 5 years we will have way more proof on the best practices and right ways to use the media.

In the meantime, I am so happy that we are using Stocktwits as an extension of my personal case study of a journey I started with my first blog post on Google Blogger, now WordPress and Twitter and Stocktwits. I am just a way better investor and trader.

The last two months have been super brutal for ivestors and I have been very cautious. Today we had many more ingredients of a bottom.

There is really big fear.

Apple was selling off super hard as was Amazon.

Goldman Sachs was in the low 80′s…it was just $108.

The sentiment to the short side, even on Stocktwits… was giddy.

The Goldman Sachs late night downgrade of the US GDP….and rushed to Bloomberg.com was my icing on the cake. Those asshat thieves were up to something in the futures market. It’s tea leaves stuff you just start getting used to seeing.

All day today they chopped the market around, but the close was significant.

The ultimate and exact bottom is not important. You did not need to buy March 9th of 2009 to make all the money.

We need to stop going down first. Today was the first day it felt like people were tired of selling.

Prices got a little interesting. There is oooooooooodles of cash out there hiding in zero percent long-term interest. I am not bullish and I was taking trade profits in Apple and Amazon at the ned of the day but am holding my Premium and added soome $RNOW as well.

We need leadership though and we are a LONG way from that.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Agreed. Volume on the indices makes it very clear – intermediate-term bottom now in place.
    …I didn’t see $AMZN selling hard though, just selling ;)

    • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

      ok…i diod not loook at volumen just price….so i meant fast.  

  • Ranjanxroy

    As an unfortunate soul that went short on August 8th, and someone who mildly fancies myself “medium-term” whatever the hell that means. Everyone keeps making it seem like the market has been getting battered forever. We had a decent upmove from the August lows and have just retraced. There is no “tired of selling” or any other one-way trends, just volatility…..and we all know that a highly volatile market can ONLY be bullish and indicative that everything is completely right with the world

    • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

      not sure what you mean.  

      i am just giving you a play by play from my seat not telling you what to do.

      • Ranjanxroy

        “The last two months have been super brutal for ivestors and I have been very cautious” – just saying that this isn’t necessarily true depending on when you would’ve gone long (I’m just saying this as someone disgruntled that the world has supposedly collapsed and I’m fully short yet flat on the trade…feel free to ignore the ranting)

  • http://borasky-research.net/about-data-journalism-developer-studio-pricing-survey/ M. Edward (Ed) Borasky

    “The Goldman Sachs late night downgrade of the US GDP….and rushed to Bloomberg.com was my icing on the cake. Those asshat thieves were up to something in the futures market. “Yep … and in the blogosphere and the Twittersphere and no doubt the boardrooms of their “partners” in Europe.

    But I will counter with this trivia question – who said this, and when? “There seems to be a perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult… it’s likely to continue this way. Ships will sail around the world, but the Flat Earth Society will flourish… and those who read their Graham and Dodd will continue to prosper.”

  • Tomshotcash

    This could be the bottom of the trading range until something positive comes out of Europe.

  • Reifeitan

    I don’t understand how it is possible to have fear and people tired of selling in the same day…  

    • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

      dude…..i cant hold your hand.  

      • Michael Whitener

        lmfao

  • David Eagan

    “There is no RIGHT way to use Social Media, there are better ways and wrong ways. In 5 years we will have way more proof on the best practices and right ways to use the media.” – This works for getting users on the platform, not so much for companies. A company always wants to feel like they are using “best practices” and make things more complicated than it should be.

    • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

      you are wise young David….these things take time or a great salesperson or both…

      I think of what twitter has had to invest the last few yyears to reteach the product….nothing comes easy.

      • David Eagan

        You have enough out there already. It’s packaging it and presenting it to a corporation so they understand how easy it is. They want guidelines, directions, and support on how to use the product many of these people aren’t creative.

        • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

          Thx. Agreed.

  • j’adoube

    Yeah I really want to base my long-term planning on a BS 40-minute short-cover rally based on a European finaance minister (now there’s a source you can trust) saying he and his coleagues have a renewed sense of urgency about  — what? – about doing absolutely nothing to address a debt crisis that’s been festering for the better part of a decade, and instead throwing a Timmay-type TARP over the whole load of crap.

    Yup, that’ll work.

    • http://www.capitalobserver.com/ Tsachy Mishal

      You only get short covering in a market with lots of shorts.

      • http://www.szelhamos.com TheAcsMan

        Say hi to Rebeccah. Did you get your father-in-law a nice birthday present?

        • http://www.capitalobserver.com/ Tsachy Mishal

          We took him to dinner last night. Ill tell him your gift is in the mail.

    • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

      hey jadoube….looks like you missed a rally of a lifetime with that bad attitude…i will sell a little nowin your honor…200 S&P points higher.  thx

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  • http://www.szelhamos.com TheAcsMan

    As a relatively anti-social person (having a Google + circle determined by a single point), I’ve been very late to adopt anything Social media related. I’m slowly getting it, but I certainly underutilize what StockTwits offers.

    I find the concept of “trending” fascinating, but am still circumspect of a group dynamic, especially since I’m an occasional fool that makes Wikipedia less than credible on certain obscure topics.

    What I do wonder is how representative the StockTwits trend is to the remainder of the investing universe? When TIME magazine highlights Gold, what is trending on ST?  Being a contrarian by nature, is the ST trend generally ahead of the curve of everyone else or on a totally different track?

    • http://www.howardlindzon.com howardlindzon

      you are overthinking….we are serving up ideas….ideqas that people on the stream that have influence and respect and based on some moving metrics might be important to review.

  • cheers !

    all the way up now…..to every down there’s the up….
    during the worst of sentiments, that’s the best time to shock the crowds….only after going up by leaps and bounds….while they are still waiting….or rather in the ‘shorts’ positions….
     

  • Greg

    Thanks Howard!  Bottoms are tough and scary. Much harder than tops.  Well I just chickened out and might regret it.  It’s good experience knowing what’s on everyone’s mind in real time, and StockTwits is best for that.  It keeps you in the zone.

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