Happy New Year everyone.
I had a wonderful 2013, but I was lucky. To those who struggled, my heart aches because I know how health issues are starting to creep into my own life as I age and my family ages. I am grateful and hope to be as whacky and irreverent as ever in 2014 to make you smile, shake your head and hopefully make a few bucks.
According to this dude and he seems smart – 2013 was ‘The Best Year in Human History‘.
Josh Brown has a great list of writers and investors who contributed what they learned in 2013. Take a few minutes when you can and read it because there are so many simple reminders of how the business of investing and markets work.
If you are an investor of any size or specialty…the internet has changed everything. Stick with it. Everything you need to crush the markets is at your fingertips.
As I always do, here is what I own heading into the year in my hedge fund and kid’s accounts – Google, Apple, iRobot, INVN, Schwab ($SCHW), Wisdom Tree, Financial ETF ($XLF), Restoration Hardware, Nike, ALKS, GOGO, Microsoft, Marketo, Autodesk…long shot broken miserable shots in the dark – Coffee ($JO) and Natural Gas ($UNG) (courtesy the help of Kimble Charting on those two).
I have run my hedge fund Lindzon Capital Partners since July, 1998 – and I don’t think I have owned this many stocks at once since 2007 and in 2008 that ended quickly in January. I am on my toes. This time around though, I am underinvested in stocks because of all my exposure to startups. In 2013, stocks stayed above their 200-day moving average the WHOLE YEAR. The last time that happened was 1997. Great returns in stocks with low volatility is just extremely rare.
I also have never owned such a mix of old, new, tech, financial and retail in such a while. I guess I should own a restaurant.
Now down to Twerking and Surging your returns in 2014.
1. Get a mentor for free on our streams. Pull out your wallet and pay for some mentorship as well. Ivan and I started Stocktwits50.com for example. Joe, Greg, Todd are all good friends and guys I lean on with their offerings.
2. Write it down. Start a journal. We built Stocktwits as the easiest way to journal your investing and trading ideas and talk to likeminded people 24/7/365. If you have been eavesdropping…that’s normal. But it is time in 2014 to write stuff down.
3. Read, read, read some more. BUT, spend less time worrying about the Macro and what economists think. My blogroll details who and what I read. I have found a few more names I will add adding ASAP. They include Semil Shah and Glenn Solomon. As of today even Marc Andreesen is back tweeting (and following me).
Tadas put together a list of books that his readers bought most often. That’s a great head start for anyone looking to improve their understanding of markets.
4. Cut your investing costs to the bone. Resist the urge to manage all your money yourself and use robo-investing (a hot trend) as the way to cut your costs. Find a human or ten or 100 that you trust and make them your advisors. It is ok to PAY for it. It is your freaking money.
5. Unless you manage BILLIONS, you DO NOT need to skate to where the puck is going or where the money WILL flow. Be where the money is already flowing. The wisdom of crowds, especially smart ones, is much better than investing alone and in the quiet.
Ok – so as we head into 2014 today…where is the money flowing?
I cover that almost every day on my stream, or check out the trending Stocktwits tickers using our website or mobile apps.
Weekly the Stocktwits50.com is my personal fave way to catch up on which stocks and industries are getting the money flow and working the best.
I do a weekly show called ‘Momentum Monday’ and another called ‘Stocks and Scotch’ where we dive in deeper and have a few laughs.
Today, strength in the stock market is abundant. The breadth of the move is thick. The advance/decline line is at all-time highs. Interest rates are rising, steeply, but off historically and insanely low interest rates.
Despite the bullish tone and fundamental underpinnings for stocks, I don’t believe there is ever an ‘all clear’ signal to invest in stocks. They are the riskiest pieces of paper you could own.
As for pictures, I believe in the term ‘Chart Art’, but I stand alone. The insiders call it ‘Technical Analysis’. My fried JC (I am an investor in his fund) lays out ‘13 Tecnical Signs That Preceded Market Tops‘. He will keep an eye for me.
Finally, remember if you are investing in stocks that it is the bond market that really matters. The most bullish backdrop data point for stocks in 2014 is likely the bond market. READ this oldie from October 2012. Nothing has changed.
People always ask me what I think about a company’s fundamentals. I say – ask the bondholders, I just own the stock and understand the products and catalysts. My fundamental work is focused solely on my angel investing where I can see the bank account and look the founder in the eye.
Others will dizzy you with their knowledge of income statements and balance sheets and the ratios of things when they talk about their stocks. They won’t be managing my equity allocations. I will stick with the price and being where the money is flowing and managing risk. I am grateful for being small. Too small to Fail.