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Booms, Bubbles and Busts...
Bitcoin, Mag7, Gold, Nvidia, Shitcoins, Bonds
Happy Sunday.
There is a BIGLY (remember the good old days people thought Trump was unfit when he said Bigly) amount of charts, chart crimes, chatter and discussion right now across Stocktwits and Twitter regarding the state of the markets. Gold, Bitcoin, Shitcoins, Nvidia (and her 9 techno sisters) are hitting all-time highs. At the same time, little is said of bonds and their longest (60 month) drawdown in history (which says a lot).
It seems to me that everyone has the same trade on…Long $QQQ ( ▲ 0.93% ) , Long Bitcoin and alts, long gold $GLD ( ▼ 0.02% ) and getting gold out of the ground and get me the hell out of bonds.
Is it a boom, a bubble, a bit of both? And when and how will it end?
The quick answer to these questions is it depends. It depends on your timeframe, your risk profile and your risk management.
Because that’s not a good enough answer for 99.9 percent of people with a brain and a keyboard we get intense internet debates.
I love when moments like these happen. They should. The US markets are a miracle. They are fascinating. They are a huge symbol of freedom. They work so well considering the politicization of them over recent decades and the bad actors.
To the charts and commentary…
I think my friend Charlie has the most discussed one…
US Tech sector outperformance hit new record high this week, moving above the peak from last year and March 2000. Tech's 34% weighting in the S&P 500 is approaching the March 2000 peak representation.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=R_ZsO0…
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello)
1:50 PM • Aug 9, 2025
It is easy to yell ‘bubble’ and harder to yell ‘this is the beginning of a boom’.
Here is what I see..
I see that it took 25 years after the technology sector hit a 34 percent weighting in the S&P to get back to that same weighting. On one hand, what a bubble 2000 was in hindsight and on the other hand, it seems possible that with mobile, cloud and AI that technology could be 70 percent weighting of the S&P at some point. I think about the massive cash, global dominance and strong balance sheets of the 10 biggest companies that have to spend it on R&D and people and raw materials to keep each other at bay and keep themselves in the same company. While it might be nicer to have 50 or 100 slightly smaller giants, 10 healthy, paranoid giants is better than two or three.
This next chart explains that railroads were once 63 percent of the US stock market so the whole ‘the S&P is too concentrated’ has seen more concentrated days (probably why Ellen and I are so enjoying ‘The Gilded Age’ on HBO)…
The Mag 7 is currently ~35% of the SPX.
For those who say Big Tech can’t possibly get any bigger…
Railroads were 63% of the U.S. Stock Market in 1881.
$NVDA $MSFT $META $GOOG $AAPL $TSLA $AMZN
— David Marlin (@Marlin_Capital)
4:07 PM • Aug 9, 2025
Less discussed - unless you live and breathe crypto - was the new SEC’s new ‘project crypto’. The SEC has gone from ‘FU’ crypto to ‘me love you long time’ in record time…
The SEC's new "Project Crypto" is the most bullish thing I've seen in a long time from a regulator. Read the speech, it's incredible:
* Almost all tokens are not securities
* Want to discourage decentralization kabuki theater
* Americans should not get excluded by IP/VPN blocks— Haseeb >|< (@hosseeb)
5:06 PM • Jul 31, 2025
With an accommodating SEC and a White House that is looking the other way, the children and grifters will play - the altcoin/memecoin/shitcoin market is pushing all-time highs ….
The rest of the alt market has broken out from its record-setting 51-month compression.
— TechDev (@TechDev_52)
8:40 PM • Aug 9, 2025
It is not just digital gold and her cousins pushing all-time highs, gold too…
Gold (+29%) and Bitcoin (+25%) are the top performing major assets so far in 2025. We’ve never seen these two in the #1/#2 spots for any calendar year. $GLD $BTC
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=R_ZsO0…
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello)
11:22 AM • Aug 9, 2025
Betting against the global government has never been more hip and easy.
Meanwhile bonds are in their longest drawdown in history (60 months) which of course might be happening for all the reasons above. I have never traded bonds or even owned any outside of treasuries, so I share the chart without much comment…
maybe bonds really are dead
longest drawdown by far in history
$tlt$spy$qqq
— Howard Lindzon (@howardlindzon)
1:35 PM • Aug 9, 2025
I will be honest as always…
All-time highs are fun. I love me some all-time highs. I am an optimist. I am a momentum investor and a trend follower so life is very good.
Unfortunately, I am also wired as a cynic and a one foot out the door guy, that remember things looked pretty good to most in February of this year before the one man tariff slinging ‘orange bear market’ took place.
Those tariffs are just now hitting, the calendar is turning to a less friendly period and it does seem like we are tempting the gods with some silly behavior.
Hope this helps.
Have a great Sunday.
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