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A Festivus For The Optimists...Hear Me Out...Happy 2024

Author

Howard Lindzon
January 01, 2024

Happy 2024 to this lovely community of readers.

Yesterday there were a few ‘link errors’ in my blog post so here is the updated post with corrected links.

Ellen and I had a great time with old friends last night at dinner and came home to watch Dave Chapelle bring in New Year for us on Netflix.

Ellen had a few martini’s at dinner so she snored in the New Year and I enjoyed the special.

Because ‘more peace’ is my only non trend prediction for 2024, I am treating all of 2024 as ‘Festivus For The Optimists’. If you want to read negative news all day, you can. The rabbit hole is endless. Be careful.

I have always looked at the world with a ‘glass is half full’ attitude, so why not.

It was a big year for ‘business’ in 2023, of course even sadly the business of war.

Three of my favorite ‘business’ thinkers (people that don’t get excited too often about megatrends but when they do I take notice) say that a new age of innovation is kicking off.

Here is Fred Wilson …’Markets have settled down and are poised to move higher and we’ve got a new megatrend that will drive innovation, investing, and the economy.’

Here is Om Malik…’It was the first year in a long time that I have been intellectually stimulated to the point where I woke up in the middle of the night, making notes in my offline journal. The dots seem to connect, and there are more questions than answers in my mind. I have been reading more, jotting down insights, and following up with questions more often. I have not felt this excited since 2003 when we were at the birth of the social era.’

Here is Andy Kessler in WSJ…

So yes, out of the depths of the inflation-riddled ’70s came the democratization of computing and finance. It feels to me as if we’re at a similar point. What’s going to be democratized next?

To be fair, there isn’t quite the same level of despair and smoggy dreams. But there is plenty of skepticism. Start with quantum computing, autonomous vehicles and delivery drones. Even the once-in-a-generation innovation of machine learning and artificial intelligence is generating fear and doubt. Like homebrew computers, we’re at the rudimentary stage. Squint a little to see the future.

Especially in medicine. Healthcare pricing, billing and reimbursements are completely nonsensical. ObamaCare made it worse, but change is beginning. Pandemic-enabled telemedicine is a crack in the old way’s armor. Self-directed healthcare will grow. Ozempic and magic pills are changing lives. Crispr gene editing is also rudimentary but could extend healthy life expectancies. Add precision oncology, computational biology, focused ultrasound and more. The upside is endless.

AI will usher in knowledgeable and friendly automated customer service any day now. But there is so much else on the innovation horizon: osmotic energy, geothermal, nuclear fusion, autonomous farming, photonic computing, human longevity. Plus all the stuff in research labs we haven’t heard of yet, let alone invented and brought to market. Remember that generative AI spent a long time incubating in labs and has been out only a year. Critics dismissed mRNA until it could provide rapid-response vaccines.

Every industry is about to change, which will defy skeptics. Figure out how, and then, as Mr. Wozniak suggests, get your hands dirty. As always, the pain point is cost. Look for things that get cheaper—that’s the only way to clear the smoke and get new marvels into global consumer hands. The democratization of every sector will proceed in mysterious ways. Happy hunting for opportunities. And stay warm this New Year’s.

This is one hell of a triangulation trifecta of optimism.

I say this all the time, but I wish I was 48. I really mean it this time.

I am 58 and have too many bad habits.

So this year I need to win back some years and focus on holding back more years than ever.

I am seeing the world more clearly again and the last time that happened was the birth of web 2.0 in 2005.

We start 2024 with a lot of momentum in the markets which helps.

It’s not just AI and machines though.

The blockchain is really here and while most of what it brings is speculatiion, the banks will start using them to cut costs and the liquidity from the ETF’s that should drop in 2024 mean that a whole new financial world will accelerate.

Off we go.

Have a happy and healthy new year everyone.

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