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Momentum Monday (Tuesday) - A Pullback That Refreshes and a Terrible Year For The Quants
Howard Lindzon
November 11, 2025
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Good morning…
I forgot to post this yesterday…sorry.
Ivanhoff and I were not worried about the pullback last week as we discuss in the video and - at least yesterday - we were vindicated. We went through some of the pullback and possible rotations and shared some fresh ideas.
Google ripped to all-time highs and Fat Nixon/Orange Julius sent $2,000 directly to poor people’s Polymarket accounts.
It is hard to be or sound professional right now because the policies and behavior in and from the White House are changing daily and disjointed.
I had a coffee yesterday with my friend Howard Morgan the legendary co-founder of Renaissance Capital and First Round Capital. We talked AI, robots, fintech, crypto, regulation and quants. All of it was exciting and interesting. Most interesting to me was he mentioned that Renaissance had their worst month in their long incredible years of running the fund this September, down 15 percent. He mentioned it was a tough year all around for quants. No one will shed a tear and that is not the point. The point is they take risk management seriously and are known as the best and even they can’t manage the nonsense that the White House shovels onto the markets.
This continues to be a great year for retail and good stock pickers. I hope you enjoy the show…
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
Weekly Recap & Market Sentiment
Momentum Stocks & Pullbacks
Rotation, Tech & AI Winners
Interest Rates & Inflation Concerns
Sector Strength: Biotech & Healthcare
Speculation, Degenerate Economy & Final Thoughts
In This Episode, We Cover:
Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:
Last week started with a big gap in most tech stocks, especially the semiconductors, after it became clear over the weekend that the United States and China are getting close to a trade deal. We have heard this many times before, as there seems to be a constant back and forth. Chinese stocks gapped up too; then retreated in the second half of the week. Chasing gaps on expected news has never been wise.
The Fed cut rates 25 basis points to 4% as anticipated. Just like last month, interest rates actually went up afterwards. The market rarely does the obvious. The endpoint might be clear, but the path there is often unpredictable. The only thing we can control is our position sizing and exit strategies.
QQQ and SPY are consolidating near their all-time highs, and yet there are plenty of stocks that are breaking down. The equal-weighted versions of those indexes have been lagging by a wide margin since July. A small number of mega- and large-caps are doing the heavy lifting. AMZN and GOOGL were good examples last week. Both crushed estimates and gapped up. Those are not stocks to chase. They often pull back to their rising 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, offering much better risk/reward entry points.
We remain in a market of stocks environment. The bounces in the high-momentum groups of the summer are getting faded – nuclear, quantum, rare earth metals, robots, etc. New groups are starting to emerge. Contrary to all expectations, solar stocks keep making new 52-week highs – FSLR, DQ, CSIQ.
And here are the charts discussed:
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