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Netflix...Woops
Howard Lindzon
May 08, 2017
Here is a long term chart of Netflix which will help as I go back in my blog time machine to embarrass myself:
Way back in December 2012, Netflix was starting to perk up again after it’s 80 percent fall. I bought some stock after it broke to 52 week highs and a market cap of $5 billion. That same month I headed to Richard Branson’s ‘Necker Island’ with some really smart people. I talked about my new Netflix position and everyone thought I was an idiot.
Like a putz, I sold my position for a small gain soon after.
By April 2013 the stock had doubled and I wrote this:
Netflix is just a $10 billion company and $AMZN is $120 billion. I like the Netflix subscription model better and a play into ecommerce and talent commerce (basically the distributed CAA and movie studio of the future) would be cemented.
Could it happen?
Maybe Amazon will read this and make the first move.
Either way, hard to be a bear in the age of windfall celebrityism, bitcoins and consumer delight.
Obviously Netflix has not bought Kickstarter (they still should), but I got everything else right.
Little did I know or Jeff Bezos for that matter that Amazon would be in the TV/movie business and that it would be a throw in with Amazon Prime launched way back in 2005.
Since that April 2013 post, Netflix is up another 700 percent and Amazon up over 300 percent.
Flash forward to today and you have to read this post from Michael Batnick called ‘my friend is beating me‘
Mark Twain once said, “It is strange the way the ignorant and inexperienced so often and so undeservedly succeed when the informed and the experienced fail.” This perfectly describes the stock market.
Today, it seems easy…own Netflix and Amazon forever. Which brings me to another nugget from Michael’s post:
The best stocks provide an illusion of safety, which is why performance chasing is one of the few things in finance that will never, ever disappear.
Disclosure – Long Amazon
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