Where is the Trade?

I believe a big trade is developing but not sure which direction.

The Apple/Steve Jobs health dilemma is impossible to game. I want him to live forever, and I think he believes he can but I don’t trust the Apple PR machine on this one. I sold most of my Apple into this 10 point spike the last few days and will be happy to pay up in a better market and less hormone induced news. The stock could easily trade to $115-120 or $80 on a gap.

I am out of my long USO trade (oil) and am on the hunt for another big bet and thinking a Retail trade is setting up. I have been early on RTH and Best Buy and don’t want to compound aggressively as I don’t have a good feel for the tape. The market is absorbing bad news like crazy, yet as I chatted with UpsideTrader in person today (also taking the day off from trading) he thought it could be viewed as just complacent.

Either way, retail stocks are quickly charging up into major resistance and I was chatting all day with Phil Pearlman about how best to leg into a big short trade. Selling some out of the money calls with good premium may be the way to leg into the trade in a bigger way. I am more comfortable shorting them hard into some signs of weakness.

Tomorrow is Brown Bag lunch day at Betaworks so that should be high energy conversing with some great start-up web entrepreneurs . After that I will be on Eric Bolling’s ‘Strategy Room’ and tomorrow night is a TechStars get together and than I get to speak at the NY Tech Meetup on all things stocks and Twitter.

This evening I spent a long time with some old Wallstrip pals and brainstormed on some video ideas and state of web video.

Watching Brent Rose do some work tonight reminded me of some of his great Wallstrip’s which you should watch. You can follow Brent Rose on twitter :