What Are The Markets Saying - Public, Private Equity, Venture and Seed...Sunday Reads And Listens

I follow prices and right now the prices I follow have me on defense. If you follow me here this has been my stance for a few months.

Growth stock prices are going down, the US dollar is going down and bond prices are dropping (rates going up). In unison this most likely means that money is fleeing the United States. Not a good cocktail for growth. This could all flip and everyone is watching these prices now, so I have no real edge predicting when all this could turn.

Pessimism is growing, so the contrarians have something to point at and bet on, but I am ok paying higher prices for growth some point in the future because as Willie points out …it takes bulls to have a bull market:

What about real estate?

My wife Ellen (real estate agent) has pointed out to me that residential inventory in the Phoenix housing market is rising. She lives on MLS and Zillow like I live on Stocktwits.

Ellen and I have the luxury of waiting. We have actually been looking to upsize our home from 2,500 to 3,500 feet (wishful grandkid thinking as we age), but with the tariffs, the inevitable price increase for home goods, the likely renovation delays and pricing outlook I shared above, we will be patient.

This guy says it is happening in Miami as well…

What about private equity?

The chart below is beautiful if it was a stock price, but it is a tally of inventory.

This glut leads me to believe upside prices will be constrained and valuations could drop. My calls to LP’s and friends in the industry conform my readings.

What about Venture Capital?

Venture feels crowded, flooded with capital.

Our firm Social Leverage has a fresh fund that we have begun to deploy.

Unlike the liquid stock markets where I can keep it simple, follow price and change my mind at any time, the private markets require us to make investments in companies that get built over 10-12 years. We have no idea what the markets will look like that far out.

In my day job, I am focused on reading, writing and searching for great founders and teams. To do that in 2025, I am having to cull through a lot of garbage.

Twitter is NOT real life, but it is a pulse of a world that has me exhausted and worried

I continue to be impressed by the amount of terrible takes on all things financial, macro and markets by the financial media (new and old) and people in the venture industry.

Social media, especially the Twitter algorithm, has led to a giant circle jerk of bad takes by underemployed technology ZIRP bros on topics including…medicine, FDA, biology, agriculture, COVID, marijuana, Israel, China, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, global macro, vaccines, autism and now tariffs.

We are now at the point in podcasts and the economic cycle where comedians are mixing with these same underemployed ZIRP technology bros (investors that were employed at a Unicorn). Of course the comedians always have the better takes because the news has always been a joke for them and they perform at street level every night. It is a traffic arbitrage and both sides are happy with the arrangement for now. Most of the comedians will eventually realize the bad look. The bad takes and bad returns have not mattered to the ZIRP bros as the money keeps flowing.

I can’t ‘block’ dumb people, bad takes and grifty bots and words fast enough. It is a tsunami of bad takes, false narratives, lies and drivel.

Furthermore, the large venture firms believe it is their job to get behind every new shiny as their narrative is they can’t afford to miss the big one…

We (Social Leverage) believe it is death to catch the wrong or non trend. Social Leverage has the luxury - because of strong past returns and our size - to be more patient and wait for fatter pitches/seed at a reasonable price.

We also must continue to educate this next crop of founders on how to properly structure cap tables, how business and margins matter earlier now, how to build and manage momentum, how to hire, how to go to market etc….

Between 2009 and 2022, technology and ZIRP combined for the best era ever to start a ‘company’.

We believe there is a subtle but huge change that founders, LP’s and our co-investors must understand as technology, the macro and prices have now changed…

It has never been a better time to start and build a BUSINESS.

Have a great Easter Sunday.

PS - some podcasts worth listening to on tariffs, degeneracy and technology

Vlad from Robinhood - are prediction markets gambling.

Will America Lose It’s Trade War With China?

Howard Marks - Navigating Crisis, Preparation and Emotional Control

Mark Dow (he is excellent) - Tariffs, Trade and Trump.

Nick Denton’s Big Bet Against The United States