Be Careful In September...

Good morning…

I spent the day on the lake yesterday and it was fantastic.

Jetski’s in 2022 are as good as any boat I drove on this lake 40 years ago. This picture also has Rob e-foiling in the background…

I have been closely following the markets this week because it feels really heavy again.

The ‘go to’ risk model for investing the last 50 years is having the worst year since 1976:

No matter what I hear on the streams, I know that most investors are getting hammered this year.

Higher rates, de-globalization and a strong US dollar continue to be the drivers of weak stock performance.

I believe the jobs market remains way too strong for the FED to take rate hikes off the table.

In the ‘history does not repeat but rhymes’ file I worry about this chart from Joe which shows that we have spent more time below the 200 day moving average than the Great Financial Crisis in 2008:

Obviously, bear market bottoms do happen when the markets are below the 200-day moving average, but really bad things happen too.

I’m being extra careful again.