COVID in July...The Bubble in ‘Shaming’ and ‘I Told You So’ Continues

Next week we turn the calendars to July.

The COVID numbers continue to get worse and you can feel the panic creeping back up. I have been panicking first selling some winners down like Peloton, Spotify, Zoom, LULU and Nike and expecting more ‘plot twists’ ahead.

Fat Nixon’s ‘disapproval’ ratings, the metric I follow most closely, has ticked up near the highest level of his presidency.

I continue to work from home in Coronado.

Coronado is maybe at 30 percent of normal traffic. The Hotel Del is still closed. The beaches are maybe at half of normal crowds even though Coronado beach has been voted the best in America. I took my friend Sheel to the airport last week and it was EMPTY. A normal June day (pre COVID) is a zoo.

Some local restaurants that had been around for twenty plus years are closing. A few actually opened up this month only to close for good a week later. It was like a peak into the new reality just to see if it was worth opening…followed by f@#k it…it is not worth it.

It’s the closings after the half openings that are bothering me most. There is no way that is factored into the economy yet.

On the other hand, two new restaurants that have been designed in a more modern and open way are doing fine. They will do their part killing what is left of the weaker local restaurants.

The post COVID restaurant and retail world will be forever changed.

For the enterprising restauranteurs with the energy and vision, I believe fantastic opportunities exist. I would imagine being able to strike a great lease deal now or in the coming months that would take into account future COVID closings and events as well as new creative ways to partner with landlords on success to protect the downside.

It also might just mean more Chipotles and Domino’s in every small town.

I hope the artisans are the ones to cut the deals and give it a try.

As for the markets…

The bears are dug in:

I can’t blame them but I doubt so many people will be right at the same time.

The financials look tired and that has generally led to market weakness in the past, BUT new financials, Square, Paypal, Robinhood and general new market interest and underbanked tools and offerings are at all-time highs.

As for all the talk of a tech bubble, the only bubble I continue to see is that in ‘shaming‘ and ‘I told you so’s‘ which is not so much a bubble as it is a problem for social media stocks like Twitter and Facebook. Today, they started losing big name advertisers like Unilever and Verizon. Snapchat (which I own) is humming right along as it does not have the misery loves company factor.

Next week could get wild.

Have a great weekend.