Happy New year...Some Thoughts On the Boom Behind Us and Grind Ahead

Happy New Year everyone.

Every year is a good year for me. Period.

I love my life.

Ellen, Rachel and Max are healthy, so I could not ask for much more.

I am looking forward to 2023, but I have NO resolutions.

I know one thing about 2023 - as it applies to my work - it will be a grind. The fluff of the last few years and the boom and glow of Web 2 when everyone got to be a unicorn...is long gone.

I know what the grind looks and feels like because I have seen the goal line with some great companies and I have put tens of thousands of miles on my bike. My long uphill rides are a grind. I put my head down, don't talk much and turn the pedals making my way to the top. Only at the top do I and the people I climb with get to look back and smile at the journey. My climbs have rarely been about speed, but about finishing. When I pull over on long climbs to gather my thoughts, rest and regroup for the road ahead, I have a reference for getting to the top. I think the edge will help me as we turn the calendar.

In 2022 we tipped over into the financial mess and now the cleanup from the excesses of a very long and easy bull market. For decades a new group of investors will have a reference for what the end of a bubble looks like.

Litquidity sums up the excesses that came to a screeching halt with this one graphic:

I am not even going to rehash my good and bad ideas and predictions for 2022 because it really does not matter. The year 2022 was gross.

In August 2020 I was writing about how the endless supply would bring an end to the bull market. I was right, but the trigger was the higher interest rates of 2022.

It is worth reading Fred Wilson's summary thoughts on 2022, his 2021 post on 'How It Will End' and what he thinks will happen in 2023.

I am ready for 2023.

Let's get on with it.