Less Fundamentals...More Bets (The Tagline Of The Degenerate Economy)! And Why All The Bitcoin Treasury Companies?

Good morning…

In 2008 the joke was my ‘dog could get a mortgage’.

In 2025, two jokes might work…my dog is placing prop bets on Polymarket and Kaslshi or my dog just started a Bitcoin Treasury Company.

Let me explain…

One of my favorite movies ever was Wall Street. So much of what happens in markets today can still be related to the 1987 classic.

One scene that I am thinking about lately is the lecture Lou Mannheim offers up about ‘sticking to fundamentals’.

I think we can all agree that we have never been further from fundamentals around finance, markets and investing than today. Not to judge of course because I mostly focus on price action myself.

The average person is only spending 6 minutes on stock research today.

One of my biggest theme and trend bets (my time and money) is that this time spent on research for most drops much further. AI research/prompts is one reason and the fact that we are in an era of ‘give the people what they want’ and what they want is ‘more bets’.

Look no further to the future (for now) than Polymarket and Kalshi each which have raised 100’s of millions of dollars to allow people to make prop best on just about anything.

This week Netflix releases earnings on Thursday. In the good old boring days of …last year…you could speculate on the earnings release by buying or selling the stock and using options. Today, here is what Polymarket has dreamed up for bets you can make on this weeks release:

Much like you can’t stop AI or robots, there is no stopping the degenerate economy that continues to explode as technology, politics and the economy creates more free time and a culture of speculation as entertainment.

Next up today…Bitcoin treasury companies…

Michael Saylor CEO of ‘Strategy’ ( $MSTR ( ▼ 0.76% ) ) is on top of the world and let’s be honest, he has been inviting everyone along for a long time. A few days ago he reminded people how easy it is in his own Nike ‘Just Do It' way:

The religion of ‘HODL’ and ‘Just Get In’ will be hard to break as Bitcoin continues to trend higher. In a new twist, lately there seems to be more people interpreting Michael’s message of ‘Just Get In’ to mean …just start another Bitcoin Treasury Company. Here is a list of them - which now includes Ethereum and Solana treasury companies.

Michael wins every way because he believes Bitcoin is an ‘economy’. Have a listen…

I agree with Michael on the economy part. It is a more open, lightweight, digital, free time and degenerate economy. You could also say this economy has…

Less steel, more steal and

Less work shifts, more grifts 

Before you get to cynical on all of this with me though, consider Vanguard and their Bitcoin dilemma. They have been outspoken that Bitcoin is not appropriate for long term investors. Meanwhile, because of Bitcoin’s rise, the market cap weighting of the indexes and Saylor’s $MSTR ( ▼ 0.76% ) - Vanguard does not just own Bitcoin…they own it indirectly and with leverage

Do not shoot the messenger.

I am just sharing what I see.

I am not smart enough to figure out the scenario in which this all unwinds.

I am just dumb enough to believe that Bitcoin dips will be bought and more bets will be created and placed.

Incredibly interesting times for everyone that invests and speculates.