Lewis Johnson of Capital Wealth Advisors on Deglobalization, Changing Trends, and a Return to Value

My fishing buddy, Lewis Johnson, is back for his third round of Panic. As I’ve been saying frequently now, I’m just having friends on the podcast. People who have seen things that interest me, not famous – or infamous – people, for the sake of their fame. While Lewis isn’t particularly famous, he’s a steady hand and understands diversification and how cycles work. We touch on the “Bernie Madoff” moment that is now FTX. Lewis isn’t really active in crypto, but has been watching it play out. Swindles go on all along, and in a bull market no one seems to care. A bear market is the usual catalyst for these frauds. People start wanting their money back. We’ll check back with Lewis in three to six months, because this show is still about how we position ourselves; and he’s got a vision of how the world might look moving forward.

Listen to this episode from Panic with Friends - Howard Lindzon on Spotify. I’m excited to have my fishing buddy, Lewis Johnson, back for another round of Panic. He runs a couple billion dollars as the CIO of Capital Wealth Advisors. Lewis was first on in November of 2020 when we realized we might not die from COVID and the Fed was printing money and we were in market Nirvana. Back then we talked value and growth and commodities because Lewis understands cycles. He’d seen the worst stretch of value stocks versus growth stocks in the last 200 years. In this episode we talk cycles and supply chains and commodities and a strong dollar and valuation and the deglobalization cycle we find ourselves in now. What Lewis has is expertise, which is why I enjoy talking to investors like him at different points in time to expand my knowledge. Guest - Lewis Johnson, CIO at Capital Wealth Advisors howardlindzon.com, capitalwealthadvisors.com blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks Twitter: @howardlindzon, @PanicwFriends, @TrendsTailRisks, @knutjensen linkedin.com/in/lewismjohnson #fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance Show Notes: Introduction (00:40) 2020 Take - Value & Growth (04:17) Welcome Lewis (07:00) Cycles have a logic of their own (08:19) Commodities & Value back in favor (10:04) A Deglobalization Cycle underway (12:11) A chain of Deglobalization events (13:22) Positioning and asset allocation (16:47) The nature of the cycle (17:50) Taking a defensive stance (18:07) Real Estate bubble in China (18:29) De-risking early (20:12) Short squeeze in Commodities (20:44) The Fed can’t print corn (21:23) European energy supply crisis (21:46) Avoiding last cycles winners (22:41) Defensive/Offensive investing (25:16) Tech under a deglobalization mindset (26:13) Valuation is the first lens (26:48) Reconstructing the supply chain (27:25) Defense spending and stocks (27:50) Emerging markets in crisis (31:27) Living in Florida (33:33) Market volatility (35:47) Risk management first (36:19) Fundamentals, supply, demand, valuation matters (37:20) Avoiding black swans (37:43) 60% of the world’s debt is in dollars (39:02) Wrapping up (41:11) Closing thoughts (41:54) Related Episode: Co-Founder and President of Fundamental Global Lewis Johnson Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss the Business of Investing – from Asset Management to the Nature of Cycles (EP.120)

Listen to this episode from Panic with Friends - Howard Lindzon on Spotify. I had the pleasure of catching up with my good friend Lewis Johnson on this episode of Panic. Lewis has a strong background, with titles like UPenn Wharton MBA grad, money manager, stock picker, researcher and entrepreneur. Lewis’ company, Fundamental Global, is an alternative asset management firm which advises on over $2 billion of assets through its affiliates and deals in research, portfolio diversification and investment experience. If you’re looking for advice about asset management – or just someone to go fishing with – he’s your guy. In this episode, Lewis and I had a wide-ranging conversation, discussing managing alternative assets, the value of research and data, his work at Fundamental Global and Capital Wealth Advisors, the markets, the industrialization of China, gold, the Next Big Thing, supply and demand, cycles, crypto, decentralization, SPACs, education, silver linings in COVID-19 and more. It was clearly a smörgåsbord of a discussion. Enjoy! Guest - Lewis Johnson, Co-Founder & President at Fundamental Global Investors and Co-CIO at Capital Wealth Advisors howardlindzon.com, capitalwealthadvisors.com blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks Twitter: @howardlindzon, @TrendsTailRisks, @knutjensen linkedin.com/in/lewismjohnson #fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance