Lindzon Roundtable...Are We Fucked?

Pretty much.

I organized a roundtable steak dinner for 12 of my good friends in Scottsdale the other night. Mostly real estate veterans but some private equity and airline execs were in attendance.

I wrote a few weeks ago that the problem with the stock market was the stocks actually growing – CMG, GOOG, CME, NDAQ, AAPL, RIMM, Solar and energy, were already priced way past perfection (probably because the pickings were narrow) and the financials had too many unknowns to be brave. The dreaded ‘Pickle’. No reason to do anything and if selling really spread, the high betas were doomed.

I don’t need my roundtable friends to talk stocks, especially since I was paying, so that was not allowed.

We did make fun of airline and homebuilder stocks, but 12 jews in the room will always rag on our fallen brothers behind their back. Almost law.

Here are my observations from my trusted group of friends (Phoenix real estate mainly):

1. The latecomers to real estate in the last three years are done. Not partially done. Done.

2. Local banks are just not lending. Period.

3. All kinds of messes and I think criminal behavior from lending commitments not being released. This is bad. Except for the greasy lawyers.

4. Lots of inventory, not a commensurate drop in prices.

5. The rich wait, the fringe have no idea of the trouble they are in with carrying costs and the amount of tension and ‘beat down’ the newbies feel is palpable. I mean this could be inning 2. Verge of a complete meltdown as some big private lenders scramble. As big a town Phoenix is, the 12 ‘jews’ of separation we employ at the roundtable is quite deep in it’s coverage.

6. If I lived anywhere other than Phoenix, I would be worried. Phoenix will crash first and demographic trends will reassert themselves. Timing the buys will be key.

7. Airlines. They are all bust. Unions keep breaking them and this cycle may be worse than last. That said, the cycle will resume again. Ton’s of winners, but too hard to game.

8. Homebuilders. One smart investor dipped into LEN Lennar Homes, through the Preferred stock. Not for me.