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Momentum Monday - Momentum For Everyone Becomes Pain For Many
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Happy Monday…
I jinxed the markets last weekend on Momentum Monday outlining there was Momentum for Everyone. Yes I have been wary of rates, but the momentum was everywhere despite months of rising rates. I share what I see.
This week we were reminded that rates do matter and momentum is a dangerous mistress.
On Monday, Nvidia’s Jensen pissed on the Quantum stocks and momentum crashed.
Mother Nature proved that the internet can’t put out a wildfire, only spread them. The damage to Los Angeles is horrific.
By the end of the week only airlines, select energy, gold and select tech looked great. The red below offers a more visual look at the mess in trends:

This week, do not be surprised to see TikTok handed off to Elon to make an algorithm the free speech that he and Donald like best.
Regardless of TikTok, what’s left this week is a lot of shattered momentum, an incoming President that will raise the $VIX and the blood pressure of most and the start of earnings season.
Is this a pause that refreshes a great run or something more sinister? Only the podcasters know:) .
You can watch the sillier version of all these takes and get some ideas from our show below:
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
Current Market Trends and Economic Predictions
The Current State of the S&P and Investment Warnings
Momentum Stocks with Volatile Earnings
Gold vs. Airlines: Market Trends
The Role of AI in Social Media
Market Volatility and the VIX Index
Reminder: Riley on my team created the ‘Trends With No Friends’ email which is my go to list every day to track what is working and what is not. You can get it for free here.
In This Episode, We Cover:
Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:
Rates are rising. The 10-year yield is not far from making a new multi-year high and reaching 5%. The market expectations for more rate cuts this year have significantly slumped. This is not a bullish backdrop for most stocks.
SPY, QQQ, and IWM made new YTD lows. Small caps IWM have already given back their post-election gains, and SPY is not far from closing its election gap. SPY and QQQ made a lower high last week and are now hanging on a thin thread.
There aren’t many financial assets that have remained above their VWAP (volume-weighted average price) since the elections. TSLA, Bitcoin, META, and GOOGL are still among them. TSLA and Bitcoin tested multiple times their VWAP since the elections. The more times one level is tested, the weaker it becomes. META finished green on Friday in an ocean of red. META would be among the big winners if TikTok really closes its business in the US.
One of the strongest groups in the New Year has been utilities. AI and quantum computing need vast amounts of energy, so it only makes sense that utilities like CEG, VST, GEV, TLN, and NRG are among the current momentum leaders.
And here are the charts discussed:





PS - Here is the latest ‘Trends With No Friends’ which covers ‘new highs and new lows’ and measures the followers (friends) on Stocktwits versus the prices. Subscribe here.
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