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- Momentum Monday - Anthropic Is Ready to Go Public and Elon Pimps Elon
Momentum Monday - Anthropic Is Ready to Go Public and Elon Pimps Elon
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Good morning…
The markets are digesting the Anthropic S-1 that dropped yesterday. The ticker symbol will be $ANT ( 0.0% ) .
The opinions are flying of course.
I am hoping it gets public so that the money continues to flow. The ‘too big to fail’ status of AI today makes me nervous.
Elsewhere in AI, Elon is being Elon just bullying people and markets with his bullhorn and access to capital. Yesterday he was tweeting about the neocloud industry being closed to new money. Of course, he has just raised $40 billion to help his own neocloud efforts. It makes sense that he tries to make it harder for his competitors to raise capital now that he has his. My gut is his tweet aimed to further pressure the broken neocloud stocks will create a short or medium term bottom instead
We will check back in a couple weeks. Ivanhoff taped our show alone yesterday but shared some ideas as always…
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
A market of stocks: AI led on the way up, now it's leading on the way down (0:00)
Neoclouds break down: $CRWV at 52-week lows, $NBIS below the 200-day (0:48)
Semis near the 200-day; cooling and optics roll over: $SMH, $VRT, $AAOI (1:15)
Beats and raises get sold: $META, SpaceX and $TSLA used as exit liquidity (2:02)
$QQQ heads toward its 200-day while $SPY holds up (3:45)
Rotation to defense: $XLP's V-shaped run to all-time highs (4:30)
How corrections unfold: rotation first, then panic (5:12)
Retail's surprise comeback: $BBY at new highs, but inflation is doing the spending (5:58)
Software and cyber bounce hard: $CIBR, $CRWD, $OKTA, $NET (7:57)
A garden-variety rotation — the capital hasn't left the market (10:40)
Healthcare at highs: pharma over biotech (11:25)
Energy at all-time highs and why the S&P beats the Nasdaq (12:44)
Here are Ivanhoff’s Thoughts
Anything AI is still in a correction mode. AI stocks led the market on the way up in the first half of the year. Lately, they have been leading it on the way down. After testing its 50-day moving average, the Nasdaq Composite broke down and might be on its way to test its 200dma or its summer lows near 660. The semiconductors ETF, SMH, is already at its 200-day moving average and only 4% away from its summer lows. The S&P 500 is also below its 50dma but has held a lot better than QQQ because of rotations into energy, retailers, healthcare, and consumer staples.
The big question that remains is whether the groups that are currently showing relative strength will also crack or whether they can lead the market higher. Healthcare and consumer staples are defensive sectors. They lead when the market is in capital protection mode, which happens during corrections. If crude oil and energy stocks continue to make new multi-year highs, inflation expectations also rise, which means more rate hikes and a headwind for the rest of the market.
Software stocks have been incredibly resilient so far. The software ETF, IGV, is still trading above its June high. Compare that to the semiconductors SMH, which is more than 20% below its June high. We saw that resilience last week, when most software stocks had a powerful bounce while anything AI-related was under heavy pressure. This group could lead if the correction ends next week. It is also a group that is likely to be targeted if the correction persists.
And here are the charts discussed:






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