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Momentum Monday - Long Growth and Long Bitcoin...What A Pair Trade That Has Been...
Howard Lindzon
August 11, 2025
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Good evening…
My pal and co-host Ivanhoff is traveling overseas so we have jumpy hours for the next month.
Today, the markets digested news that Trump will tax $NVDA ( ▼ 0.35% ) and $AMD ( ▼ 0.28% ) 15 percent of sales off the top to China. As mark Cuban says, if only AOC, Bernie and Liz Warren had thought of this.
Up is down and right is left and grift is everywhere.
The most important short term takeaway is that Nvidia and AMD shareholders did not seem to care.
The perfect momentum trade since Satoshi launched the Bitcoin whitepaper has been long growth ( $QQQ ( ▼ 0.3% ) ) and long Bitcoin. The long Bitcoin part has really just gotten mainstream and I can’t really tell where we are in the hype cycle. It has been the perfect trade (in hindsight) because Bitcoin has been the best way to express the end of the world from deficits and bad government which in a way is the hedge on long growth.
I don’t see what breaks this trend but it seems too obvious at the moment so a breather may be in order soon.
I dive deeper into all this in today’s show…
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
Summer Travels & Catching Up
Sector Rotations & Stock Picking
Mega Caps' Market Dominance
$NVDA ( ▼ 0.35% ) , AI, and Corporate Influence
$GOOGL ( ▼ 0.21% ) Potential in the AI Era
Undervalued Tech & AI-Driven Winners
Market Complexity & Closing Thoughts
In This Episode, We Cover:
Summer Travels & Catching Up (0:00)
Sector Rotations & Stock Picking (1:45)
Mega Caps' Market Dominance (3:03)
$NVDA ( ▼ 0.35% ) , AI, and Corporate Influence (4:24)
$GOOGL ( ▼ 0.21% ) Potential in the AI Era (6:08)
Undervalued Tech & AI-Driven Winners (11:16)
Market Complexity & Closing Thoughts (14:15)
Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:
They say you have to pay special attention when the market doesn’t follow the usual seasonal patterns. We might be in such a situation right now. August and September in the second year after the presidential election are typically considered a weak period for US stocks. The Nasdaq 100 just hit new all-time highs last week after a brief dip below its 20-day moving average. Not everything is hitting on all cylinders. There are plenty of mid and small-cap stocks under pressure while select mega-caps are carrying the load. AAPL was the big difference maker last week for QQQ. Tim Cook finally announced that Apple wants to commit to investing heavily in US manufacturing. This was enough to lift the stock more than 10% higher. Palantir (PLTR) crushed earnings estimates again and made new all-time highs. GOOGL is making higher lows and higher highs above its rising 20dma. TSLA gained 10%. Those moves were enough to mask the chopiness and rising volatility under the surface. The saying that bull markets correct through sector rotation was proven right once again. When a few leading stocks take a breather to pull back to their 20 or 50-day moving averages, other stocks perk up and keep the indexes relatively unscathed.
We are in a stock picker’s market. There are still plenty of stocks that are breaking out to new highs after earnings, then consolidate for a short period of time and continue higher. There are also plenty of stocks that gapped up and then quickly faded or were completely crushed this earnings season – just look at the damage in cybersecurity and software stocks lately. This market is picking its spots.
And here are the charts discussed:
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