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Momentum Monday On A Wednesday - I Have Been Busy...The Bond Market Will Not Be Bullied and The Arctic Smokescreen?
I will say that I have never followed so many stocks, markets, countries than right now, so the markets have my attention.
Howard Lindzon
January 22, 2026
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Good morning from Orlando.
Ivanhoff did our weekend update by his lonesome which was great and you can watch below.
A lot has happened since Trump used his megaphone to launch weekend tariffs and demands from Greenland. It is all over my pay grade of course but you can assume people around him profited nicely and the media lost its mind.
All sides of the aisle right now are so smug. I wish the rhetoric would ease, but what I want is irrelevant.
This note from a fave investor Josh Wolfe titled ‘The Arctic Smokescreen’ was an interesting read. I think some of it is true but my lord how we are playing this out is hard to watch.
The markets are doing their best to price in Trump and his tactics, but it is hard ( at least for me) to trust the stock market right here when defensive names are also rising and the bond market is flinching.
I will say that I have never followed so many stocks, markets, countries than right now, so the markets have my attention.
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
Introduction: Trump Tariffs & Market Reaction
Semiconductor Leadership ($MU ( ▲ 6.61% ) , $ASML ( ▲ 2.57% ) , $TSM ( ▼ 0.32% ) )
Software Sector Struggles & AI Concerns
Gold, Silver & Rare Earth Metal Setups
The Rally in Space Stocks
Small Caps Outperformance vs. Tech
China Tech & Relative Strength ($BABA ( ▲ 3.87% ) , $BIDU ( ▲ 8.17% ) )
High-Flying Drone Stocks ($AVAV ( 0.0% ) , $KTOS ( ▼ 6.29% ) )
Conclusion & Week Ahead Outlook
In This Episode, We Cover:
Introduction: Trump Tariffs & Market Reaction (0:00)
Semiconductor Leadership ($MU ( ▲ 6.61% ) , $ASML ( ▲ 2.57% ) , $TSM ( ▼ 0.32% ) ) (2:00)
Software Sector Struggles & AI Concerns (2:46)
Gold, Silver & Rare Earth Metal Setups (4:52)
The Rally in Space Stocks (6:00)
Small Caps Outperformance vs. Tech (7:04)
China Tech & Relative Strength ($BABA ( ▲ 3.87% ) , $BIDU ( ▲ 8.17% ) ) (8:21)
High-Flying Drone Stocks ($AVAV ( 0.0% ) , $KTOS ( ▼ 6.29% ) ) (9:51)
Conclusion & Week Ahead Outlook (10:55)
Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:
Small caps tend to outperform in the first few weeks of the new year. This is exactly what has happened so far. Russell 2k (IWM) is up 8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq 100 is up 1%. The divergence is significant. We don’t get to see it often. The optimists will say that this is just another sector rotation, and QQQ will likely be the next one to break out as small caps consolidate. This scenario wouldn’t surprise me, but I am also leaning on the cautious side. It doesn’t take a lot of buying power to move small caps when compared to large caps, so seeing pullbacks and fading in the latter is a red flag.
In the meantime, the industries that the government defines as strategically important enough to invest directly in them are clearly leading year-to-date – space, crypto, nuclear, rare earth metals, semiconductors, AI tech, energy infrastructure, and drones. Everything else is choppy and lagging…
And here are the charts discussed:
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