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Momentum Monday - Tech Stocks Remain the Market Leaders...
Howard Lindzon
October 05, 2026
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Good morning.
Ivanhoff and I taped a fresh Momentum Monday to discuss the haves (technology) and the have nots (restaurants, retail).
If you are indexing in the S&P or Nasdaq, you do not see the underlying bear markets in many stocks including American giants Walmart and McDonalds.
Americans that are invested are seeing the best of times. Americans trying to get ahead are seeing the hardest of times.
We discuss all this in the episode below…
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
Nasdaq Composite at new all-time highs while everything else lags (0:00)
$AAPL and $NVDA: 20% of the S&P and the perfect AI hedge (0:24)
Retail is getting wrecked: $NKE, $LULU, $DECK and the tariff squeeze (1:06)
The sneaky trade of the month: $META's end-around with Muse (2:38)
The planets: seven companies, 40% of the S&P, and kissing the ring (4:04)
A tale of two tapes: $SHOP, the restaurants, $MCD, $SHAK and $CMG get squeezed (4:38)
Can this continue with rising rates? Something has to give (6:25)
Lock in some gains? Bonds at 5–8% and Google's 100-year bond (7:31)
Tech is complicated again — hard to invest in outside of indexing (8:09)
Stocktoberfest week: $SMH up 75% YTD vs. $IGV up 2% (9:46)
Photonics and optics lead: $LITE, $CIEN, $GLW, plus $AMD, $ARM, $MRVL (10:53)
No floor for consumer ($SBUX, $BROS), AI disrupting the apps ($CART, $DASH), and indexing masking it all (12:13)
Here are Ivanhoff’s Thoughts
While so many sectors are at or below their 200-day moving average, the Nasdaq Composite is at new all-time highs. AI stocks continue to lead the market. The semiconductor ETF, SMH, gained 4% last week and is now up75% year-to-date. Software stocks are acting constructively – IGV is only up 2.5% YTD and has been choppy, but keeps making higher lows and consolidating in a range between $110 and its 50-day moving average. People are buying even minor dips in tech stocks for multiple reasons – expected growth, enthusiasm about AI, and mainly because it has been the only sector that is trending upwards. Crypto is also consolidating in a tight range near its 3-month highs. There seems to be a lid on it right now – we saw so many upside morning gaps that consistently faded.
The jobs number on Friday came below estimates. The Fed has a dual mandate – full employment and under 2% inflation. Higher-than-expected unemployment reduces the odds of more rate hikes. If crude oil also pulls back, yields will decline, which would ultimately help more stocks to join the rally. It hasn’t been pretty outside of tech.
The three big catalysts that are likely to shape the price action over the next month or so are Anthropic’s IPO, the mid-term elections, and the war in the Middle East. And the next earnings season starts in a couple of weeks.
And here are the charts discussed:
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