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Momentum Monday - The AI Landscape Is Changing Fast and Brazil Breaks Out
Howard Lindzon
October 12, 2026
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Good morning from Tuscany…
The markets, like the economy have been a story of the ‘haves’ and the ‘have not’s’.
The ‘have not’s’ are having a miserable year as you can see from the image below…
The ‘haves’ are battling each other as they race for global domination and the first company to reach $10 trillion.
The ‘haves’ though have been playing ‘all-in’ on AI and the landscape is changing rapidly as Anthropic and Open AI battle the open source models. Last week, according to OpenRouter, OpenAI and Anthropic were charging a premium for some of their models—$1 to $2 per million input tokens. Comparable Chinese open-weight models like Z dot AI s GLM and Alibaba’s Qwen charged 6 to 12 cents, around 90% less—that factor of 10 inflection point. American AI labs have gone from 70% market share last year to 30% today. All are still growing. But prices matter.
There is a new global emerging market breakout in Brazil which we discuss in this weeks episode. As always, Ivanhoff and I tour the markets and share a few new ideas in the video which you can watch below…
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
Large caps consolidate near all-time highs — and low vol in Tuscany (0:00)
$NVDA and the semis pull back on heavy volume ahead of the midterms (0:42)
Software makes new 52-week highs: $SNOW, $DDOG and cyber ($CIBR, $NET) (1:57)
Feast in select tech, famine in restaurants and consumer ($NKE, $LULU) (2:40)
Brazil breaks out on the election: $EWZ, $XP, $STNE, $DLO (3:10)
Biotech pulls back but the mRNA names lead — and a vaccine-news pivot ahead (5:03)
Energy and the refiners: $XLE, $EOG, and a spreading Middle East war (5:53)
$FCX setting up again near 75 (6:47)
AI whipsaw: the OpenAI revenue leak, $CRWV and the most levered names (7:03)
If you must play AI, buy the best: $MU (8:44)
$LLY quietly basing after a 10x, peptide launch ahead (8:59)
A market of stocks: 134 S&P names down 40%+ this year (9:28)
Here are Ivanhoff’s Thoughts
AI stocks are back in under-pressure mode. The market might be discounting tighter regulations if there’s a power change in the Senate and the House after the midterm elections. In addition, OpenAI’s leaked revenue is well below estimates, which has likely led some investors to reconsider their allocations to AI-related stocks for now. The semiconductor ETF, SMH, pulled back to its 20-day EMA around 600. If it is going to bounce, this is a great level. Losing it would likely lead to a test of its 50-day moving average around 580.
If you ignore the elevated volatility in anything AI-related, the situation is not dramatic. SPY and QQQ are consolidating near their all-time highs. Crude oil and rates are pulling back slightly. Small caps (IWM) are trying to stabilize near their 200-day moving average.
Meanwhile, capital rotated into software. IGV is still about flat year-to-date, but it has been making higher lows and consolidating near its 52-week highs. Cybersecurity stocks continue to be the leaders in software – CRWD, OKTA, PANW, NET, CIBR, etc.
Brazil had a huge gap after its elections. Similarly to what happened to Argentina a few years ago when Milei was elected, the financial markets tend to react favorably when a more capital-friendly candidate wins. Brazil’s elections are not over. They have a second tour in a couple of weeks, and if there is a surprise, those gaps will be quickly reversed. So far, the leaders in this space are XP, STNE, NU, PAGS, PBR, etc.
And here are the charts discussed:
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