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Momentum Monday - The Nvidia Honeypot Bottom of 2026?
Prices lie less than people
Howard Lindzon
November 09, 2026
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Good evening…
If you want to go right to the Momentum Monday video that Ivanhoff and I did last night just scroll down as I wanted to dump my thoughts on things after a crazy weekend of news and today’s market action.
Yesterday I shared a bunch of reasons why I was buying last week and would buy this morning. The one chart that stood out was this…
Today, DESPITE the insane Sunday night breaking news that the $NVDA ( ▼ 4.27% ) founder and CEO was in a possible Chinese spy scandal and an admitted affair, the markets did this - their BEST advance-decline day of the year
For weeks now, semiconductor and AI stocks were selling off. Yesterday, I called it the Trump ‘Super Intelligence’ top of 2026 when he declared on September 29th that AI was now SI.
It turns out that the market also had a clue that Nvidia’s founder and CEO was in an about to break scandal.
Interestingly (conveniently) the news really broke yesterday on a Sunday (during NFL games), with the markets closed. Jensen even wrote a public apology.
If this news had dropped on Friday afternoon, what was a bad Friday would have been a disaster.
Instead, the panic worked itself out in the futures last night and today cooler heads prevailed and the markets bounced. Yes Nvidia finished down about $500 billion (and it cost Jensen and the company dearly which is now worth $500 billion less than Apple), but their loss was the rest of the MAG 7’s gains..at least for today.
While Jensen and Nvidia have a lot of explaining to do and may remain in a quagmire for weeks and months, the rest of the world will continue demanding compute and getting their $NVDA chips. Wall Street is focused on trying to get Anthropic public ASAP and for that they can’t be in crash mode.
Here is another chart that indicates the people/markets smelled something rotten with Nvidia long before the news broke Sunday…
Once again we see that prices lie less than people.
This is the main reason prediction markets are disrupting news (which became opinion). Prediction markets give me prices surrounding events, which yes are a form of opinion, but even in their nascent form are more reliable and less noisy than the news. For all the harms and rotten things about betting and gambling, the world before prediction markets is not coming back!
Today’s ‘grotesque’ clickbait headlines I was reading about Jensen and Nvidia from every major media company further seal the deal. They know it too. Noise and drama for clicks.
The best reporters will hopefully get supported to do actual news, but most reporters and ‘journalists’ would be wise to check the prediction markets and what is trending as to what stories and news to cover.
If you did not panic last week good on you. If you bought the panic, well done. The markets are not out of the woods thby any means but I would also not be surprised if the Sunday breaking Jensen/Nvidia story was not a short term bottom.
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
A big distribution day after the midterm blowout (0:00)
$AMAT slices through the 200-day — somebody blew up (0:44)
$QQQ below the 200-day; $MU down 50% despite blowout numbers (2:04)
How to trade this tape: intraday ranges and low-volume bounces to short (3:48)
$NVDA headline risk heading into the week (4:47)
Genomic stocks implode; $XLE pulls back to the 200-day (6:06)
Silver lining: falling crude kills the next rate hike (6:35)
Best house in a bad neighborhood: Zcash and $ABNB (7:32)
V-shaped comebacks in consumer: $SBUX, staples, utilities (8:14)
What happens after midterms: the 2018 playbook (9:34)
The COVID crash for perspective (11:13)
Waiting on Nvidia and the Anthropic IPO before putting on size (12:27)
Here are Ivanhoff’s Thoughts
The semiconductor group was dismantled last week, and now SMH trades well below its 200-day moving average. The market has been pricing in a Democrat win in the past month or so. We saw an acceleration of that trend after the midterm election results. All AI-related stocks remain under pressure – fiber optics, data centers, servers, chips. Some of them are so extended from their 50-day moving averages that they could easily have massive dead-cat bounces if the right news hit the tape.
Who stands to benefit from tougher AI regulation in the US? Maybe Chinese AI stocks. They bounced after the elections and are showing some near-term relative strength but are still in a severe downtrend, which means there is a lot of overhead supply and rallies will be sold into. It will take time for perceptions and price action to change there. It might not even happen. I am keeping a close eye on them to see if a new uptrend develops.
Zcash might also benefit. It is showing notable relative strength. Just like Bitcoin, only 21 million coins can ever be minted. The difference between them is privacy. Bitcoin uses a transparent public ledger where every transaction can be tracked. Zcash offers optional financial privacy using zero-knowledge proofs. This privacy has become increasingly valuable. This is probably why Zcash went from 40 to 1400 in the past 14 months.
And here are the charts discussed:
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