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My Predictions for 2026...The Biggest Year Ever For Predictions

If you are not close to AI, be as far away as possible

Author

Howard Lindzon
December 08, 2025

Good morning…

To refresh, as the world de-globalizes, US markets and degeneracy (predictions, options, futures) globalize.

Before I offer up a few more, it is only fair to look back at my predictions for the last year to see how I did. Here you go…it is worth the read. I wish I had bet heavier on my predictions.

One thing I did not predict was that ‘memory stocks’ would lead the S&P. If I had predicted them I doubt I would have held them for their incredible yearly gains. THis is why I mostly index.

Memory stocks were driven by the AI leaders/spenders (architects) pictured here as the ‘person of the year’.

I doubt the memory stocks have as good a year as last year, but either way, I hope they collect their receivables before these ‘persons’ pictured above fall!

One prediction I got right last year was the rush to ‘storytelling’…


I believe we are entering the beginnings of what I am calling the ‘Narrative Economy’. It is an economy that sits on top of ‘technology’ and the ‘degenerate economy’.

What is the ‘narrative economy’?

The 'narrative economy' emerged full throttle in 2024. Storytelling always mattered in public markets. Because of technology, ZIRP and politics/policy we now have Memestocks and Memecoins that are ‘storytelling’ first entities. These sit on top of the 'degenerate economy' of $2 plus trillion (Bitcoin, Solana, HOOD , Fan Duel, Draft Kings, Coinbase).

Just last week the Wall Street Journal ran a cover story titled ‘Companies Are Desperately Seeking Storytellers’. The gist:

The percentage of LinkedIn job postings in the U.S. that include the term “storyteller” doubled in the year ended Nov. 26, to include some 50,000 listings under marketing and more than 20,000 job listings under media and communications that mentioned the term, according to the professional-networking platform.

Executives meanwhile said “storyteller” or “storytelling” on earnings calls and investor days 469 times this year through Dec. 11, compared with 359 times in all of 2024 and 147 times in 2015, according to FactSet.

The surge reflects a transformed media landscape over the past 25 years.

Companies for decades relied on mass media and its journalists for publicity, also known as “earned media,” but that avenue has been shrinking for years. Just over 49,000 people worked as “news analysts, reporters and journalists,” according to the most recent national estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, down from 65,930 in 2000.

The year 2025 was also fantastic for the hard metals like Silver and Gold. Will 2026 be even better?

I checked in quickly with my friend Lewis Johnson who I have on my podcast every year to check in on the commodities and metals. He thinks the run in silver and gold will spread to other commodities in 2026. For the last three years Lewis has come on the podcast to talk about the de-globalization trend that has sparked this rally.

I had him on the podcast back in March and he explained his reasons for owing gold and the risks of inflation. Gold is up 50 percent since.

The US dollar will likely be a huge topic of discussion this year as well and I will have Lewis back on my podcast in January to discuss this trend and the US dollar which is banging up against this major trendline below as I write…

Enough with the macro…what about technology?

My ‘great white sharks’ of technology investors/writers/thinkers (Fred Wilson, Michael Parekh, Om Malik and Andy Kessler) were bullish headed into 2025 so I stayed bullish. I have no shame being a ‘pilot fish’ to the ‘great white sharks’.

I have not seen their 2026 predictions yet so I will share them if and when they share them.

The easy prediction about technology this year is Silicon Valley, the ‘silicon squid’ will further entrench itself in The White House.

I think all the shameless gifts and bootlicking is gross and they (CEO’s) say it is in the interest of shareholders. This just means we as citizens are on our own more than ever. Voting with our collective wallets is harder than ever because the products offered by the corporations bowing to Trump and The White House are as good and addictive as ever. I wish I had a simple answer to how these trends get broken.

In my prediction post last year I quoted my friend Raoul who summed it up better than me…

Damn straight Raoul.

Based on the corruption and insider dealings this coup d’etat is pretty much complete. I already miss the days of Goldman Sachs/Vampire Squid running the FED and The White House. That said, Goldman must be thrilled being the voice and money ‘drafting’ behind Silicon Valley, quietly profiting and pillaging with their stock up 200 percent in the last two years.

I assume the corruption in the White House continues so the Trump family, friends as well as Silicon Valley insiders and the banks ( $GS ( ▲ 1.96% ) and $XLF ( ▲ 0.55% ) ) will have another great year.

Getting out while the getting is good will be a theme that plays out in 2026.

SpaceX will get their $1.5 trillion IPO done in 2026. The cherry on top of the coup d’etat is hard to bet against. Elon’s pal/henchman David Sacks is the AI czar and Crypto Czar so the safest AI bet you can make is to follow Elon Musk or who he most respects …Google (I am long). If you follow me on Stocktwits you know I added Tesla ( $TSLA ( ▼ 0.45% ) ) a few months back as a hedge for this coup.

It the enemy of my enemy is my friend, Waymo (Google) has to take $TSLA seriously even though they have a massive lead…

A few weeks ago - again if you follow me on Stocktwits you saw - I added Rivian ( $RIVN ( ▲ 10.7% ) ) because it will likely come into play as the giants jockey in self driving and electric vehicles. So far so good.

I think Open AI will have to try and get public too so as not to have all the money from the public hoovered up by SpaceX.

Any product slips by Open AI could be game over for them. I imagine Microsoft would backstop them if they have to.

Our social network overlords will continue to levy taxes on us for the pipes they now control. Just last week Meta/Facebook announced they plan to charge people $10/month if they post more than 2 links.

I asked my friend Danny Frenkel - the founder and CEO of Punhcup.live to comment on this latest Meta toll. Danny was at Meta for 10 plus years before starting Punchup which is an email based/shopify for creators. Here is his note to me…

Again, if you own $META ( ▼ 0.86% ) the stock…life should continue to be good.

Danny continues and I agree…

Rent vs. Ownership:

If your livelihood depends on posting links inside someone else’s walled garden, you’re renting, not owning.

That’s why I’m so bullish on people building owned distribution, email lists, phone numbers, and direct relationships. Stuff that doesn’t disappear because a product manager needs to hit a revenue target before earnings.

Social platforms are incredible for discovery. They are terrible places to build a durable business.

The Math No One Wants to Talk About:

Here’s a stat that makes people uncomfortable because it’s boring and true:

Emails and texts convert ~20x better than a social post.

So take your social following and divide it by 20.
That’s the number of emails or phone numbers you should aim to collect over the next year if you actually want predictable revenue.

Not virality. Not vibes. Conversion.

Social is for reach. Owned channels are for revenue.

The only other big trend idea I have conviction in is the same as last year…if you are not ‘close’ to AI, be as far away as possible. That might not be as scalable, but it might save your mind and soul.

Have a great Sunday.

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