Prediction Markets, Community and Trust - The Future Of Alpha and News In A Post Real Time World

Happy Sunday…

I have been really behind in my daily newsletter. It is not on purpose. I am just buried in work. The Social Leverage team has been the busiest in years the last few months with older portfolio companies growing fast and needing attention as well as new investments being made at the fastest clip since 2017. I have also been excitedly deep with the Stocktwits team as we grow faster than ever and finish the most exciting roadmap in the company’s 17 year history (hint - AI rollouts, API updates and prediction markets).

Onward…

Last week I began explaining here a few weeks back in my piece ‘post real time world’ thesis. The gist:

Twitter’s best idea right now is actually Stocktwits …which is flattering and a great idea, but they have no idea how far behind their thinking and product is…

The real best idea for Twitter would be to kill the AI default and to reprioritize links. Here is their new (and 80th) head of product Nikita asking users what they want fixed - he knows the answer and gets hit hard - but has no power to really fix it.

At the same time as the ‘post real-time’ world is upon us, the ‘degenerate economy’ is exploding all at once and globally. Billions want to participate in all things trading, speculation, investing and betting.

While this cohort of new investors will be ridiculed, they do come with zero commission, networks (like Stocktwits), and are armed with deep research on any company or market they want. As an example, my friend Jeff has been creating these Stocktwits ‘cheat sheets’ for hundreds of companies reporting earnings this quarter. He has been a Wall Street and hedge fund Analyst for 20 plus years but between Claude and earnings data and Stocktwits sentiment can publish these cheat sheets almost immediately - FOR FREE. Here is what they look like below - in this example for $SE ( ▲ 1.88% ) - offering investors an easy way to digest earnings and projections from a grizzled veteran.

You can follow them on Stocktwits in real-time here too. Side note - If you are not using Gemini Pro ( $GOOG ( ▲ 0.54% ) is my largest single stock position) and or Claude you are being left behind.

In 1985, Excel changed the world of business. It opened up borders and growth. The closer you got to the excel spreadsheet, the bigger advantage you had in the markets. I hated this world as a lowly retail investor.

Personally, I have never been an ‘Excel guy’. I assume if a number can be made up, it will be made up. Our President now confirms what I always believed….

According to the White House and his network of grifters, ‘everything is a hallucination’!

To keep your sanity in this new world of information/misinformation…you should let the grifters and cheaters have the real time line of scrimmage.

Those that focus on AI’s deep research, great storytelling, a trusted network (does not have to be at scale), great distribution and good risk management can outperform the old system of excel and real time information. In 2025, AI, deep research, networks, the cloud, the commoditization of transaction prices and access (Robinhood, Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, Etoro, Polymarket, Kalshi, Alpaca) are already being used at scale by ‘retail’ investors around the globe.

As for News, Twitter is going to lose that too.

Here is Polymarket’s version of news which is already so much better (disclosure - I am a small personal investor).

The news is more relevant/better because it is not about ‘who’ started or amplified the news, but how much money and attention the news/story/prediction is getting. Of course, Stocktwits plans to roll out it’s own version of ‘news’ as it relates to our community - financial events like earnings, and FED meetings etc - and Twitter has partnered with Polymarket, but the future of news is here for those that are paying attention.

As you can tell…I am excited.

I did not see this all coming, but now that it is here, I am all consumed by it.

Hit me up if you have thoughts on all this and are a founder working in this new frontier.

Have a great Sunday.