Charts To Watch...Software Ate The World And Now Is Getting Eaten...4D Chess or Kerplunk...Google Keeps Winning, Robots Robots Robots, The Degenerate Economy Comes To Hollywood and AI is Just Leverage

Good morning from Coronado

I am headed east this week, first to the Orlando PGA show with Max, a few other stops in Florida and than New York.

Trump and his bootlickers believe he is playing 4D chess and I believe it is more like the child’s game Kerplunk. Last year it was Kerplunk by tariffs and this weekend more tariffs (Trump LOVES tariffs) as Trump demands Greenland. The argument, not horrible, is we need Greenland because if we do not have Greenland, China and Russia will be our neighbor. I am all for an Israeli like Iron Dome over America, so having Greenland on our side is a great idea. So why at the same time have we pushed Canada, our actual neighbor, into China’s trade arms at the same time? Here is hoping that we go back to playing checkers and chess, build an iron dome to protect us taxpayers and put some friendly boots on the ground that respects the law.

Onward…

The public markets are so much more interesting to me the last few years than the private markets. The fact that A16z just raised $15 billion (god bless them) and is filling the social media world with propaganda about how the world works is just making seed stage investing and public markets more interesting than ever.

One of the most watched/shared charts of late is the underperformance of the ‘Magnificent 7’…

I am not sure it means too much yet. Only Google holds very strong from this group. For now it makes sense as they control Waymo, own 8 percent of Anthropic (Claude), own Gemini and also a huge chunk of SpaceX. Go Google.

Apple’s stock is struggling which I hate to see. Ben Thompson has a good essay explaining why Apple keeps fumbling the opportunity with Vision Pro.

My friend Larry also points out this shared some charts that further solidify that the public markets are the most interesting place to be if tyou are not so lucky to be seed investing…

Larry also points out that Energy stocks ( $XLE ( ▲ 0.17% ) ) may be joining the hard metal commodities in ourperforming the S&P ( $SPY ( ▼ 0.08% ) ) - note the $XLE ( ▲ 0.17% ) is 40 percent Exxon and Chevron…

What could derail this continued bull run?

My eyes are still on rates which no matter how much Trump and The White House huff and puff to lower rates, they do not seem to budge. I like bull markets so I hope they do. I also think a run up in the US dollar wold be something the markets might not like.

The last chart I will share is that of software stocks which for a couple of decades have eaten the world and now seem to be getting eaten themselves…

It was quite a week for AI as Claude launched CoWork which accelerated the decline of public software stock multiples and prices and Open AI the not for profit, now for profit (if they can beat back Elon which is not likely), needs good old fashioned ads to change the world.

I have no idea who to trust in 2026 but other than Trump and venture capital podcasters, there is nobody I trust less than Sam Altman. I have voted my trust by removing Chat GPT from my mobile home screen and will stick with Gemini, Claude, and Perplexity for my general use. I use Fiscal.ai (a portfolio company) for all my fundamental financial research and reports.

The Open AI panic to ads (they probably should have launched ads a year ago) is just a reminder that AI is a tool, not the be all and end all. AI is leverage and for many it now needs to be a business. It turns out AGI might stand for ‘ad generated income’ …

Back to AI eating software. Turnabout is fair play. As software ate the world, it makes sense that software founders, boards and shareholders thought they were invincible.

All the doom and gloom said…software won’t die quietly. A lot of these companies in the chart above that are currently in secular declines will figure things out.

Next up…ROBOTS.

Packy has a robots essay that I read which goes deep and wide on all things robots. Have a read..it is good.

Finally…the degenerate economy meets immersive and interactive television and live streaming as prediction markets leader Polymarket was integrated into the Golden Globe awards and Netflix considers the same (obvious to me for at least sports and finance). Hollywood hated it, which means it is here to stay. You can watch/listen all about it…

Have a great Sunday.