The last Mile of AI... and Technology and Degeneracy Everywhere All The Time

Good morning.

I have so much going on in my brain as I think about all my meetings with investors, LP’s and founders the last few weeks on the road. This is my life with two full time jobs as CEO (Stocktwits) and investor (Social Leverage). NO COMPLAINTS. I would change nothing right now other than the digits of my age and my energy level.

I had so many great meetings in New York the last few weeks, but catching up with Yoni (Etoro founder $ETOR ( ▲ 3.16% ) ) on all things investing and family was a highlight (Rachel joined us too). My good friend Ronen (Yoni’s older brother) has long wanted to go to Carbone’s in New York so we all did that too.

I am back behind a desktop which is the only place I know how to do real work . Real work for me is reading and writing and dealing with email.

I long ago gave up on the idea that when I am on my iPhone or laptop that I was getting real work done, unless I am on a plane using my laptop with an adderall and the headphones on.

When on the road it is all about meetings which I consider ‘real work’ and I use a notebook to keep lists of things I need to do so when I finally get back to a desktop I can catch up on the work. The notebook helps keep anxiety down. Other than my life on Coronado, on the road is where I do my best thinking. That is work that might be most important and luckily never feels like work.

As for email…most emails can wait until I get to a desktop. On the road I mostly just scroll email from my iPhone and delete or tag for importance so that when I am at my desk I can catch up more efficiently.

I have NO social apps (other than Stocktwits) on my homescreen. Here it is…

Looking at my homescreen it is no wonder $GOOG ( ▼ 0.77% ) and $AAPL ( ▼ 0.2% ) are my largest single stock positions.

I would say the biggest open opportunity I see for my iPhone homescreen is ‘more degeneracy’. I rarely use Venmo and I want to replace it with the perfect degenerate app - maybe a crypto wallet, maybe a prediction market app. maybe a game, definitely betting and likely a mix of all of these features. My one goal right now at Stocktwits is to be building for this outcome. Robinhood is currently the leader by miles.

Social Leverage is an indirect investor in Pump.fun which is likely the leader in total degeneracy at the moment, and there is no shortage of ‘financial’ apps gunning (burning money) to take that title away from them. My issue with degeneracy and probably Crypto including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana right now is that we have more than enough access to them, way too much supply and not enough time or money or relevant use cases to get to a next level of demand. In June I wrote here that the ‘supply’ was coming and here we are in November with crypto being mostly in a bear market, that the supply matters. If only I knew how to time and trade the markets!

As for the future, I imagine Waymo makes my homescreen at some point. Teen parents and older people are just such massive winners from an autonomous world but I don’t live in either of those worlds at the moment.

Robots are too far away for me to care. I like my air fryer and N’espresso machine. I have made a few personal (private) investments int he robotics space. I imagine owning Google is owning robots.

Energy is likely the biggest opportunity for investors but I know so little and have no trusted network to tap. I follow public market prices but lack conviction because of my low interest in the sector. That has been a big miss for me as nuclear stocks boomed.

Quantum is coming but like biotech, I can’t own stocks with any conviction that have no revenue, let alone earnings.

Which leaves AI, which is where I am doing the most personal work. On the Stocktwits and Social Leverage calls it is all I ask about. What products, when can we deploy and see benefits and how can we use it.

AI to me is like the internet era as we entered ‘the last mile’ race. What was last mile? For you yoots:

The last mile of the internet is where the bubble burst.

Everyone wanted to own that last mile into your home or office at any cost and that cost was a Capex spend and company spend that led to a crash.

AI is different and the same. The difference is that 700 million people already use Open AI. The same in that most of it is just a cool magic trick for me until I can get that last mile.

One example of the last mile that I want and need is as a creator. On the subway in Manhattan this week, Rachel and I came up with some funny advertising ideas for Stocktwits based on ads we were seeing from our seats. Using Open AI, I was able to prompt (because of Rachel’s help) my way to a great creative mockup, but the last mile of editing, sizing, replacing photos etc was not even close. I can understand why people are excited about AI because when that last mile is available to me via prompt, I will be loving life as a creator. Is that two years or five years is the question.

I’m rooting for that last mile happening before a bubble bursts. We need this CAPEX and liquidity bubble to carry on to get to that last mile in both AI, energy and robots.

Sam Altman may have done everyone participating in these bubbles/booms the last few weeks. Gavin Baker explains…

This post Gavin refers to is the must AI read of the week and you can read it here.

While all this is happening, in the real world, Warren Buffett and Stanley Druckenmiller came out as buyers of $GOOG ( ▼ 0.77% ) .

The dumbest reaction to the news is they are old farts, who do not care about technology so it does not mean anything.

WRONG!

Warren has to find the biggest of the big technology companies because of his size. To make a difference in their portfolio, they have to be right and they have to be right about a very large company.

This all goes to a chart I shared a few weeks back about Google and their relative strength versus the Nasdaq 100. This is where I banged the table most recently on Google as it started to show outperformance…and the stock is up another 10 percent since:

October is when Warren/Berskshire was likely buying the stock too.

What matters to Warren and the biggest hedge fund buyers is can their pick be big enough to matter to their portfolio and outperform the $SPY ( ▼ 0.02% ) and $QQQ ( ▲ 0.08% ) at the same time.

This is why they have been the best at what they do for so long.

How long all this AI boom or Google outperformance lasts (when to sell) is the hard part of managing money.

For the people that say it is too late to own Google or any Megacap technology stock, I look to the percent of the S&P that is already technology based. It is at a record high over 30 percent, passing the 2000 bubble high.

The question you should ask yourself is not whether technology can be 70 percent of the S&P (it will be one day with semiconductors, robots, energy solutions, space and AI), the question is what will you do when the percentage drops to 20 percent of the S&P?

Have a great Sunday.