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The World Is Spinning Out Of Control...Same as It Ever Was

The wars, social networks, the degenerate economy and AI make it all louder than ever.

Author

Howard Lindzon
June 22, 2025

I’m back on the grid (thanks for the nice notes wondering if I was dead)…and wow did I pick a doozie of a day to start writing again.

I woke up today to the news that the USA has bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

As a supporter of Israel I am thrilled. It was a bold decision by Trump. I am rooting for the Iranians to rid themselves of the Islamic Republic.

War is complex, but terror and evil are not. I believe no amount of diplomacy or bombing will stop terrorists. I worry/expect terrorism to increase now that the USA has officially entered the war and because the funding of terrorism seems to be growing unabated.

I will share three takes on the bombing/war from a few thousand I have already read…here is Aimen Dean:

“The Gambler Lost: Iran’s Nuclear Folly and the Last Summer of the Islamic Republic”

It has finally happened, the inevitable, the writing long scrawled on the wall now seared into reality. With twelve bunker-busting bombs and thirty cruise missiles, the United States brought to ruin what took the Islamic Republic of Iran two decades and over a trillion dollars to build: its nuclear crown jewel. Its trophy. Its last card on the global stage.

The strikes didn’t just destroy facilities, they shattered illusions. What came crashing down wasn’t merely a set of centrifuges or underground bunkers. It was the pride of a regime that had gambled its people’s future on the delusion of strategic supremacy, and lost.

As an amateur student of history and a humble observer of geopolitics, I can say this with some confidence: we are now watching the final act of the Islamic Republic unfold. The fall may not be instantaneous, but it is now inevitable.

The Dominoes Are Already Falling

Paradoxically, the more the regime fights - especially if it expands its conflict to include U.S. bases or threatens GCC nations - the more it may temporarily delay its own demise. War creates chaos. Chaos suppresses mobilization. Ordinary Iranians - weary, disconnected, and desperate for stability - will wait for the guns to fall silent before daring to rise.

But rise they will.

As with Serbia under Milosevic, the aftermath matters. People need time to digest the sheer scale of their leaders’ incompetence. Once the smoke clears, Iranians will be confronted with the stark truth: the entire nuclear program was a catastrophic, generational waste.

The regime claimed that its repression, foreign interventions, and economic sacrifices were justified to achieve national security and regional prestige. Instead, it propped up Assad, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis - to the tune of $250 to $300 billion - only to watch each of these proxies collapse or become irrelevant.

What remains? Just the wreckage of a dream that became a nightmare. The Iranian people endured crushing sanctions - costing their economy an estimated $1 to $1.6 trillion. All for what? For a nuclear program that is now a smoldering crater.

The House Always Wins

To understand the scale of betrayal, imagine a family dynamic.

The regime is the abusive, gambling-addicted father. He had wealth. He had options. He could have used his resources to build a comfortable life for his family, modern schools, good healthcare, beautiful homes. Instead, he dragged them into a cramped, stifling existence. He mortgaged the house, sold their future, and gambled everything away in the dim-lit halls of Vegas - metaphorically speaking.

For two decades, he told his family, “I know what I’m doing. Just a little more sacrifice, and we’ll win it all back.” But he forgot one thing: this world is America’s casino. And in Vegas - the house always wins.

Now the father returns home, broke, humiliated, with nothing to show for the years of lies and suffering. And the family? They look at him with a mix of contempt, rage, and sorrow. They grab what they can - pots, pans, vases — and they beat him into the fate he most deserves: death by a thousand cuts.

This is not fantasy. It’s a metaphor for a popular uprising. The only path left. And it will come - once the air clears, once the internet returns, once the people can see what has happened with their own eyes.

The Silence Before the Storm 

The only lifeline left for the regime is to keep some form of conflict alive - not enough to provoke total war, but just enough to keep its own people afraid. As long as fear holds the streets, the regime can breathe. Barely.

But the end is written. The Islamic Republic, as we know it, cannot survive this.

This summer will be decisive. Not just for Iran - but for generations of Iranians. The dream of the Islamic Republic has turned to ash. And in its place, something new will rise - if the people are given even a sliver of peace.

The worst take always comes from the asshat anti-semite in charge of the UN - Antonio Gutless…

And here is George Conway with a short and sour take on the war so far…

Onward…

I am on my way home to Coronado after two weeks in Italy and a few nights in UK Countryside which never disappoint. Ellen and I also spent one night in Milan (for the first time) to shop and eat and window shop for design ideas. We loved it.

I am exhausted, but also feel rested and rejuvenated… thrilled to get back to work.

My good friends Roy and Raja joined me (and 30 others) on the Bartali ‘Youth in Movement ’ ride which was an intense 200 plus kilometers over 3 days in the Tuscan hills and heat. I will share more on this wonderful organization later this week.

This picture sums up those first days which I call …’suffering for pleasure’:

Ellen and our friend Farhad joined, Raja, Roy and I after Bartali for a little less intense riding and a lot more food and rest. Ellen and I were visiting our friend Xenia who owns/operates our favorite home away from home. Ellen and I have been coming since 2010 after Brad and Amy Feld invited us for a week . We have paid it forward many times. Another friend Roy Kaller had rented the villa for the week after reading about it in my newsletter. He and his wife were a late scratch due to some family health problems so he graciously offered up the rooms to us.

A few photos from Xenia’s place…

Post ride from the pool

The pizza oven

The villa entryway on our way out for a ride…

I am returning home to the continuing AI mania/boom and the expanding/accelerating ‘degenerate economy’.

All my time at Social Leverage and Stocktwits continues to be spent on this ‘degenerate economy’ expansion. I am not alone. Over the last week, Coinbase announced they will expand into stocks (via the blockchain), the Circle IPO (stablecoin) was a huge success and now JP Morgan launched a stablecoin themselves. Twitter partnered with Polymarket and Robinhood rolled out new trading tools and a new mortgage product:

For the last five years Social Leverage has been backing seed stage wealthtech/wealth management companies (Frec.com, Fiscal.ai, 11th.com, useseeds.com, Koyfin.com) and today the space is blazing hot with venture capital. So much so that I have decided to include the whole wealth category into my ‘degenerate economy’ thesis/theme. After years of going sideways, both Schwab and Goldman Sachs are also breaking to all-time highs. I expect both of them and other big financial companies to make up for lost time with many acquisitions - large and small.

Two of our fund 4 wealth tech/fintech/ai/centric companies recently raised large series A rounds. Last week it was Finchat - now Fiscal.ai - announcing their $10 million fundraise and brand change. A few weeks back it was Seeds closing their $10 million seed round. Seeds is focused on powering financial advisors with the best tools.

As we head into the second half of 2025, Social Leverage has started investing out of its fifth fund (sixth if you count our first emerging manager fund).  We have expanded our team with Evan Rapoport joining us as a venture partner.  Evan is the founder of SmartX and loves the markets and trading as much as I do.  He also gives us an east coast presence based in Florida. We also hired Ethan Berk on the team full time as a senior associate.  Ethan had been my chief of staff the last two years.

Stocktwits has had it’s best six months in its 17 year history with record sales, new customers, great products launched, record engagement and the the best investing community on the web.

I have also been working on a new product for Stocktwits that connects everything I have learned building community which combines stock picking, crypto/stablecoins, betting, peer to peer functionality, trading and education.

While in Tuscany, when not riding and talking about the wars, all our group conversations were about AI. I did not expect Open AI to be the runaway leader, but kudos to them. Like the Tesla and crypto phenomenon, I am behind because I am not a daily active customer/user. While I am not a daily active user of Chat GPT, everyone around me is. Open AI is truly an 8 to 108 product (everyone from 8 years old to 108 is using it).

I think the big question is do you need to worry if you are not an AI early adopter?

I don’t want to take that risk, but I have never been a daily active user of Excel, another industry and world changing product, but it did not stop me from being a successful founder or investor. I think the overall utility, productivity and new markets that AI unlocks is what matters most.

Enough for the first day back.

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