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- Turnaround Tuesday? The Selling In Momentum Stocks stopped for the day.
Turnaround Tuesday? The Selling In Momentum Stocks stopped for the day.
Nasdaq down roughly the same magnitude/velocity as the Covid crash
Howard Lindzon
March 11, 2025
Good evening…
I am in Deer Valley this week with my partners Tom and Gary as well as Punchup.live founder and friend Danny. We all love to ski and lucky for me, Tom and Gary own homes here.
I used to be a great skier but now I am just an old man that skis well. I have not skied two days in a row in at least a decade. We did two hard half days, perfect spring skiing sunny conditions and 14,000 feet of vertical each day. That is enough for me.
Tom and I timed it so the Leafs were in town playing ‘The Utah Hockey Club’ which is the dumbest name in pro sports, but a great game that went to a shootout and the good guys won (Leafs).
Go Leafs Go
That is me in the Doug Gilmour Leaf’s shirt
Now to the important stuff…the stock market growth/momentum crash.
I forgot to include ‘Ivahoff’s Thoughts’ to the Momentum Monday post and readers noticed. It’s in there now.
Today, the selling stopped (it could start again hard tomnorrow of course).
If you follow me on Stocktwits.com i shared that I bought some $GS ( ▲ 0.96% ) , $RDDT ( ▼ 1.06% ) , $HOOD ( ▲ 2.01% ) , $QQQ ( ▼ 0.34% ) and $BROS ( ▼ 1.21% ) today. For now just trades.
Ivanhoff shared what this growth/momentum destruction has looked like just this year…
Last year leaders drop from their all-time highs: $DECK -46%, $TSLA -54%, $NVDA -29%, $MSTR -55%, $HOOD -44%, $PLTR -38%, $VST -44%, $APP -53%
— ivanhoff (@ivanhoff)
4:19 PM • Mar 11, 2025
One of my favorite thinkers on tech and markets - Gavin Baker - had a great roundup of where we are…
Oil down. Rates down. Truflation at lowest level in 4 years. Dollar down. Credit spreads stable. All in reference to the last few weeks btw.
Note that every company that guided in late January/early February incorporated a strong dollar into their guidance.
Weak dollar really good for large, global American companies.
GPU spot retail availability is down post Deepseek. GPU spot rental pricing up post Deepseek. Google raising contract GPU rental pricing. DRAM spot prices go up every day. China buying every GPU they can post Deepseek. TSM February growth accelerated YoY vs. January. GTC next week.
Massive degrossing in the long leg of the momentum factor; by some measures the sharpest down move ever in this period of time. Nasdaq down roughly the same magnitude/velocity as the Covid crash.
FII was less than 20 days ago. Trump opened his speech focusing on how much the equity markets were up since his election. I think he still cares despite all the rhetoric to the contrary. “No crying in the casino,” etc.
I think there is a little too much confidence that the administration wants a recession. They are most focused on the deficit and a recession would obviously be negative for the deficit. Seems ok. We will see.
Should note that some smart investors think we are already in a recession. Time will tell as ever
On top of that (I bolded the Gavin note that really caught my attention)…look at the Stocktwits.com Social VIX which has been dead right exploding in bearishness the last month but now maybe too negative…
No wonder the selling at least stopped today.
If Trump would just leave his phone at home and go golfing in Bermuda for a week we might see buyers emerge.
Good night.
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