What A Week...Masters In Business Podcast, The Memory Chip Supercycle, 1999 Internet Vibes, Meeting Tim Dillon and Back on My Bike in Tuscany

Before I get started…

Happy Mother’s Day to the four moms that read me here including my wife Ellen. Mom’s rule.

Last week in New York, my friend Barry Ritholtz had me back on his hugely popular and long running Masters In Business Podcast. We had a blast. Barry let me riff for 90 minutes in his amazing Bloomberg studio. We covered a lot of ground on my past and the future of the ‘Degenerate Economy’ and why the public markets are more fun, interesting and offer more opportunity than the private markets. Sadly, Bloomberg cut out our running ‘whale’s vagina’ references that came up as we chatted about life in San Diego. I hope you watch…

Onward…

Good evening from Tuscany…

Is it 1999?

I was sitting in my favorite spot at my friend Xenia’s place on Friday as the markets closed and of all things had this thought…

The semiconductor run of the last year - up 172 percent the last 12 months - is making me think of the 1999 internet boom and the Nasdaq bubble that soon popped.

In hindsight, this boom is of course obvious. We are in the midst of a memory chip explosion in demand. Have a look at this chart and explainer from Fiscal.ai (subscribe to their greet weekly newsletter):

Let me try and save you a lot of ‘agita’ (yiddush for anxiety) about how to think about what to do next if you are long semiconductors ( I have been long $SMH ( ▲ 4.9% ) ). Have a look at what my friend Cullen Roche (a fellow whales’ vagina resident) laid out below…

Based on my 172 percent gain the last 12 months I am fine with 8.2 percent a year from this point - if Monday were to be the top. I doubt the inevitable semiconductor crash ahead will be 1999 in scope and over the last few weeks I have sold a little just in case.

Next up…

The markets do not care where I am and they certainly don’t care about any of our feelings at the moment.

The Koyfin.com team (amazing product and we are investors) shared this excellent chart this morning which has really got my attention…

I have said it here often here over the years that the markets climb a wall of worry and the markets don’t care about your feelings.

A new twist on these long time sentiments is also at play…

Since social media became mainstream and even more so since the ‘algo’ driven feeds, the markets are also likely to climb a ‘wall of misery’.

The AI and Degenerate Economy booms are so big right now that a small group of companies are able to carry the markets to high after high no matter how bad we feel about the economy, each other and the future.

I am back on the bike…

I am in Tuscany at the moment and got back on my bike for the first time since my finger accident. It has been a tough six weeks trying to let the finger heal and stabilize. My friend John Hughes hit the hills with me the last two days. John is a good friend, an amazing rider, incredible founder (Tubemogul) and now venture capitalist.

Finally…

I got to meet Tim Diillon last week after seeing him live. My friend Danny took me to the Patrice O’Neal benefit conference. It was a murderers row of comics that took the stage. Back to back I saw Tim Dillon, Bill Burr, Dave Attell and Jordan Jensen.

I grabbed a photo with Tim and Jordan afterwards…

Have a great rest of the weekend.