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Momentum Monday - Unconditional Surrender

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Oh boy…

The world is selling semiconductor and AI stocks this morning.

I shared a bunch of charts Sunday explaining why I sold semiconductor and technology stocks last week and it seems like everyone was looking at my newsletter or the same charts. Last night, the South Korean index was shut down after declining 10 percent. They are the poster child country for semiconductor stocks, ai stocks and leverage right now.

This morning, the memory stocks like Micron are donw 10 percent.

Not to panic, prices are back to just those seen a few weeks ago.

As always, Ivanhoff and I made the show Sunday evening, and if you subscribe on YouTube, you get alerted. But, I held my post back a day because of all the weird trading happening yesterday.

SpaceX alone has lost $900 billion in value the last few days, but is still above the $135 price that Elon set so don’t worry, only the people that Elon wanted to get away from to Mars have lost any money. It’s not like he did not warn you.

The genius of his IPO was the speed to market once Elon decided. Elon wins either way now that the IPO is behind him. If the market craters from here his arch enemy Open AI will have a much harder time getting public and Sam Altman will not be able to bully the bankers as much as Elon. Same goes for Anthropic and good luck to ay other ‘space’ company thinking about competing.

While they play their games, the rest of us our suffering as the markets digest what an ‘unconditional surrenderby the White House to the IRGC means for all of us here in the United States.

What has not been working for a while is getting uglier fast…

Software leaders of the past like Salesforce, Oracle, Microsoft and Palantir and now even Facebook continue to get sold.

Netflix is a mess. I am not surprised as the content has been awful. Cheap content, cheap audience. Apple, HBO, YouTube and Amazon are where I go first at night. I won’t cancel my Netflix but they have lost my attention.

Another old consumer favorite whose stock is a mess is $LULU.

Eli Lilly continues to work but the restaurant stocks are being pummeled as America gets thin. EliLily and the AI tailwind (dropping research costs and increasing research speed) is leading the biotechs to a breakout here, so I am watching that closely.

Enjoy the show…

Welcome back to Momentum Monday!

In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:  

  • Geopolitical Distractions and Markets Gapping Higher

  • AI Dominance vs. Gold's Post-News Correction

  • Risk-On Rotations: Financials and Biotech Breakouts

  • The Semiconductor Surge and 1999 Comparison

  • Consumer Setup: $BROS ( ▼ 1.81% ) vs. $SBUX ( ▼ 0.15% )  

  • AI Data Centers, Tech Supply, and Long-Term Trends

In This Episode, We Cover:

  • Geopolitical Distractions and Markets Gapping Higher (0:00)

  • AI Dominance vs. Gold's Post-News Correction (1:45)

  • Risk-On Rotations: Financials and Biotech Breakouts (3:35)

  • The Semiconductor Surge and 1999 Comparison (4:42)

  • Consumer Setup: $BROS ( ▼ 1.81% ) vs. $SBUX ( ▼ 0.15% ) (6:59)

  • AI Data Centers, Tech Supply, and Long-Term Trends (7:46)

Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:

Over the past few months, the market rallied on every positive news about the peace treaty in the Middle East. Now that it has been signed, what is the next catalyst? Falling oil prices should help consumer discretionary and transportation stocks, or the infrastructure rebuilding in Iran? Caterpillar (CAT) made new all-time highs every single day over the past week.

The dip in AI stocks was bought again. Semis (INTC, ARM, MRVL, SNDK, WDC, MU, AMD, AMAT, LRCX, etc.) made new all-time highs after a brief pullback towards their 20-day EMAs. QCOM and NVDA might be the next ones to break out. Fiber optic, like GLW and server stocks like DELL, are working on a new base. Data center stocks are breaking out  – NBIS, CRWV, HUT, WULF, CIFR, IREN, etc. AI energy stocks like BE had a bigger pullback of around 30% towards its 50dma, and it also bounced to new all-time highs. 

Not even a “hawkish” Fed has been able to stop this bull market. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged despite a strong jobs market and inflation readings well above its 2% annual target. Maybe this is why even housing stocks are starting to stabilize and set up for a potential breakout. Software remains among the weakest so far, and it will likely need another temporary rotation out of semiconductors to bounce back.

And here are the charts discussed:

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