The Space X IPO, Predictions and Prediction Markets

Merry Christmas…

I hope everyone got the gifts they wanted and their regifts went undetected.

I am sure I will be at a mall today because of all my sins.

The mall used to be fun, but so did Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

We can’t have nice things!

The new fun, weird, evil, degenerate thing for investors are prediction markets. They won’t kill the mall or social media and in fact will enhance both.

My 2026 predictions are almost entirely about them.

I think prediction markets are more about media than actually betting, but the investors and founders do not.

Prediction markets are pieces of media and news that are to be discussed and of course for many to bet on.

This morning I saw that Polymarket, a media partner of Stocktwits (we do not take affiliate fees or commissions), created a prediction market for which bank will lead the SpaceX IPO. Morgan Stanley is in the lead…

Being the sarcastic cynic that I am, I chimed in that the winner would be whoever has the highest price target on Tesla at the time a decision needs to be made!

The one sure thing is there is the exponential expansion of Media (and bets) in this one prediction.

What a brand boon for Morgan Stanley to have all this FREE press right now.

What stress for the Goldman and JP Morgan banking teams to see this.

What a nightmare for every analyst at Morgan Stanley that has to be on good behavior until the deal is announced so as not to upset Elon.

Not that I ever would ever read Wall Street research, but how does this prediction help Wall Street research become less rigged?

The game within the game has expanded. So has the rigged game within the game of course.

If you have not made the Polymarket or Kalshi homepage part of your ‘news’ consumption, are you even really following the news?

I tell anyone that asks (I just tell my kids), that before you go make a prediction or yell at people on the internet about their opinions on a subject, check the prediction markets first. They will give you a head start into what to be angry, happy or frustrated about before you waste yours and others time with your own salty thoughts.

By the end of the year, Polymarket and Kalshi will probably not be the place I go to for ‘news’ as my favorite sites and apps will likely implement them in a way that helps me better consume the content that the predictions offer.

We at Stocktwits have huge rollout plans for prediction markets that are unique to stocks, markets, news, sports and politics. These predictions - and the results - will feed more unique data into new predictions that will lead to more predictions which will lead to more predictions….and on and on. I believe this is the definition of exponential growth and why I am bullish on many forms of media (especially deep vertical) and financial companies that harness prediction markets the right way.